Stephen Gorenstein: Why War Hasn’t Shifted Fundie’s View on Gold and Critical Minerals

Why It Matters

The outlook signals continued demand for safe‑haven assets and critical minerals, influencing investor allocations and Australian mining valuations. Rate‑cut expectations and central‑bank buying could buoy gold despite geopolitical volatility.

Key Takeaways

• SGH Ari Fund posted 95.4% gain in CY2025 from gold/minerals
• Gorenstein expects Fed rate cuts this year, supporting gold prices
• Central banks remain net buyers of gold despite recent Turkish sales
• Ramelius Resources maintains FY26 guidance despite short‑term production dip
• PC Gold and Many Peaks offer exploration upside and M&A interest

Pulse Analysis

The Iran conflict has reignited market nerves, prompting a sharp sell‑off in bullion and related equities in March. Traders also reacted to the surprise nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, fearing a shift away from the dovish stance that had underpinned recent gold rallies. While oil price spikes from the Strait of Hormuz closure added inflationary pressure, the liquidity squeeze forced investors to liquidate gold holdings, pushing prices from a January peak of roughly US$5,500 per ounce down to about US$4,700.

Amid the turbulence, SGH Ari Fund manager Stephen Gorenstein remains bullish on precious metals. He argues that the Fed’s rate‑cut trajectory is still on the table, a view that would lower real yields and make gold more attractive. Moreover, central banks, aside from short‑term sellers like Turkey, are net purchasers, providing a steady demand floor. This macro backdrop underpins the fund’s 95.4% return in calendar‑year 2025 and reinforces the case for critical minerals such as tungsten, antimony and gallium, which are expected to benefit from post‑conflict restocking.

On the company side, Gorenstein points to miners with disciplined cost structures. Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) kept its FY26 guidance of 185‑205,000 ounces despite a weather‑related production dip, signaling resilience. Smaller explorers like PC Gold (ASX:PC2) and Many Peaks Minerals (ASX:MPK) also stand out, offering upside from untapped resources and positioning for potential M&A activity by larger mid‑tier miners. Investors seeking exposure to the gold‑critical‑minerals nexus should prioritize firms that can sustain margins even if gold prices wobble, as cost discipline will be a decisive factor in a volatile macro environment.