
Money of Mine
Understanding the forces behind aluminium’s price spike is crucial for investors, miners, and manufacturers who depend on this versatile metal. The episode reveals how supply concentration, evolving market models, and geopolitical risks can reshape costs and availability, making it timely for anyone tracking commodity markets or planning strategic sourcing.
The latest episode reveals why aluminium prices have surged to a four‑year peak. A cascade of supply disruptions—Alunorte shutdown, Queensland gas force majeure, and recent Guinea bauxite constraints—combined with robust Chinese demand and ample hydropower, pushed both alumina and primary aluminium prices above cost curves. This rapid price rally underscores the commodity’s sensitivity to geopolitical events and the tight balance between inventory and consumption.
A central theme is the evolving supply chain, especially China’s reliance on Guinea for roughly three‑quarters of its bauxite imports. That concentration creates strategic vulnerability for both parties, prompting Chinese firms to invest in local alumina refineries and encouraging Guinea’s government to demand on‑site processing. The market is also transitioning from a fully integrated model, where bauxite, alumina, and aluminium were owned by a single entity, to a merchant‑driven structure that separates raw material procurement from smelting. This shift reflects broader changes in global commodity pricing and the rise of third‑party trading platforms.
Finally, the discussion highlights the rapid rollout of new alumina refineries in Indonesia and Guinea, leveraging Chinese‑designed technology that cuts capital costs to a third of Western estimates and shortens construction to under 18 months. These projects sit on the low‑cost Q1 curve, offering competitive advantages over older Chinese facilities that must import bauxite. As the industry embraces faster, cheaper builds and the integrated‑merchant balance evolves, investors and miners gain clearer insight into where future aluminium supply and price dynamics will emerge.
We sat down with Alan Clark of CM Group — aka “Aluminium Alan” — one of our favourite people to speak with and a with tremendous commodity insights focused on the global aluminium, alumina and bauxite markets.
This episode is packed with detail on one of the world’s most important and underappreciated metals markets, from Guinea’s dominance in bauxite supply to the ripple effects of China’s smelting sector and the overlooked stories in molybdenum and vanadium.
In this conversation, Alan covers:
• The 5-2-1 rule and how much bauxite it really takes to make a ton of aluminium
• Why Guinea now accounts for ~75% of China’s bauxite imports and why analysts keep under-calling it
• What caused the alumina price to surge to a 4-year high in early 2025
• China’s hydro-exposed smelting sector and why rainfall dictates output in Yunnan
• The Iran / Middle East supply risk hiding in plain sight
• Molybdenum and China’s growing import dependency and what that means for prices
• Vanadium flow cell batteries gaining real traction in China and the supply chain complexity that follows
Follow Alan and CM Group:
https://www.cmgroup.net/our-staff/alan-clark/
This episode was recorded on 19 Feb 2026.
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TIMESTAMPS
(0:00) Intro
(3:20) Guinea Bauxite Boom
(5:50) Alumina Price Spike
(16:40) China Model Goes Global
(36:10) Australia’s HPA Opportunity
(37:20) From Bauxite to Sapphire Wafers
(38:40) HPA Qualification and Cost Edge
(40:10) Substitution and Tariff Volatility
(51:00) Magnesium China Dependence
(54:20) Magnesium Price Spikes and Die Casting
(59:50) Gallium Extraction Add-Ons
(1:01:00) Molybdenum Cost Curve Story
(1:04:00) Vanadium and Flow Batteries
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DISCLAIMER
All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only. Please ensure you read our full disclaimer.
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