Cheap No More: How Rising Demand Is Reshaping US Natural Gas, with Artem Abramov and Jai Singh

Why It Matters

Rising LNG and data‑center demand will lift U.S. gas prices, reshaping cost dynamics for both domestic consumers and export‑oriented producers.

Key Takeaways

• LNG export approvals add 13‑14 BCF/day demand by decade's end
• Henry Hub expected to rise from $3 to $4‑5 per MMBtu
• Data center gas use could reach 3‑4 BCF/day, but faces delays
• Tier‑2 basins may need $5‑6 price to become economical
• Haynesville, Permian and Appalachia will sustain near‑term supply

Summary

The episode examines how the United States’ natural‑gas market is transitioning from a decade of ultra‑low prices to a tighter, higher‑cost environment. Rising demand from newly approved LNG export projects, rapid data‑center build‑outs supporting AI workloads, and broader electrification are challenging the shale sector’s ability to keep gas cheap.

Analysts note that while Henry Hub is currently below $3/MMBtu, structural forces are pushing the price band toward $4‑5/MMBtu over the next decade. Seven Gulf‑coast LNG projects, representing roughly 13‑14 BCF per day of feed‑gas, have received final investment decisions, and data‑center gas consumption could add another 3‑4 BCF per day, albeit with significant permitting risk. Existing basins—Haynesville, the Permian, and the Appalachian—will meet near‑term demand, but tier‑2 plays will only become viable if prices climb to $5‑6/MMBtu.

Jay Singh highlighted the recent Freeport outage’s price impact and the $10 billion Japanese acquisition of Haynesville assets as evidence of a market shift. Artem Abramov emphasized the “black‑box” uncertainty around tier‑2 basin response to higher prices, while both stressed that data‑center forecasts are being tempered by efficiency gains and project cancellations.

The outlook suggests higher domestic gas prices for consumers and utilities, while reinforcing the United States’ position as a major LNG exporter. Midstream capacity upgrades and strategic investment in higher‑cost basins will be essential to balance export ambitions with domestic supply security.

Original Description

Let’s Talk Energy and explore a US natural gas market at a turning point. For more than a decade, US consumers have enjoyed seemingly limitless volumes of low-cost gas from the country’s shale plays. But now, rising demand from a combination of LNG exports, data center buildout and general electrification is set to test the US shale sector's ability to ramp up production cheaply.

+ What is the outlook for US natural gas supply, demand and prices and how are data centers and a wave of LNG export projects changing that view?

+ Can the US rely on its massive shale reserves to meet surging demand and keep prices in check?

+ What is at stake for the array of companies that are producing, shipping and eventually burning that LNG and for US consumers who expect energy dominance to lower their bills?

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Further Analysis :

- Why US LNG won’t stop flowing (available to non-clients): https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/why-us-lng-wont-stop-flowing

- North America Gas Market Report – January 2026 (clients only): https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/688863?qid=8de3804419f63b54ade172ad9b1e31fc&oid=doc_688863

- Five years into development, Eagle Ford’s Dorado keeps delivering upside (clients only): https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/690223?qid=7957221a9c8cee611ca899d8d227394e&oid=doc_690223

- Mitsubishi acquires Haynesville-focused Aethon for $7.53 billion (clients only): https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/669409?qid=9ffc1de60a86b603071ba0b4aecec778&oid=doc_669409

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Related Episodes

- The next US shale hotspot: Western Haynesville, with Matthew Bernstein : https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/the-next-us-shale-hotspot-western-haynesville-with-matthew-bernstein

- Is China’s falling LNG demand a warning sign for global markets? With Wei Xiong: https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/china-domestic-gas-supply-on-the-rise

- Who will make money in the energy industry in 2026? https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/who-will-make-money-in-the-energy-industry-in-2026

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🎙️Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.

Produced by: Laura Rodriguez Skaug & Både Og.

Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.

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