Olive Resource Capital Fund Posts Strong 2026 Returns Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty

Why It Matters

The fund’s outsized returns demonstrate that disciplined mining‑focused investing can thrive despite geopolitical headwinds, highlighting strong demand for precious metals and the value of active cash management.

Key Takeaways

• Fund up ~25% YTD after 160% 2025 gain
• Arizona Sonoran sale generated substantial multiple on cost basis
• Sailfish Royalties delivered ~400% return over two years
• Fund holds 10% cash for opportunistic redeployment
• Outlook targets copper rotation later in 2026

Pulse Analysis

Olive Resource Capital’s performance underscores a broader trend: mining‑focused funds can generate exceptional returns when they blend deep sector expertise with flexible capital allocation. After a 160% surge in 2025, the 2026 fund’s 25% YTD gain reflects both robust precious‑metal price dynamics and the firm’s ability to identify high‑conviction assets early. The fund’s two marquee exits—Hudbay’s acquisition of Arizona Sonoran and the Sailfish Royalties royalty sale—illustrate how strategic timing and thorough due‑diligence can translate into multiples that outpace traditional equity benchmarks, even as global tensions stir market volatility.

The fund’s proactive cash‑management strategy proved prescient amid a wave of geopolitical uncertainty involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which dragged mining equities down 10‑15%. By maintaining roughly 10% of assets in liquid form, Olive positioned itself to capitalize on price dislocations, a tactic reinforced by seasonal trading models that anticipate market pull‑backs. This disciplined liquidity buffer not only safeguards downside risk but also equips the team to deploy capital swiftly into undervalued opportunities, reinforcing investor confidence in the fund’s risk‑adjusted return profile.

Looking ahead, Olive’s management signals a pivot toward copper, anticipating a commodity‑leadership shift as the global economy rebounds from soft Chinese data and seeks greener energy solutions. The upcoming copper rotation aligns with heightened demand for base metals in electric‑vehicle supply chains and infrastructure projects, offering a fresh growth avenue after the Arizona Sonoran exit. By scouting replacement copper names now, Olive aims to sustain its momentum, positioning the fund as a bellwether for investors tracking the intersection of geopolitical risk, commodity cycles, and active fund management.

Original Description

Recording date: 7th March 2026

Olive Resource Capital is off to a strong start in 2026, with the fund up approximately 25% year-to-date following an exceptional 160% return in 2025. The gains have been driven primarily by precious metals holdings, including positions in Omai, Arizona Sonoran, and West Point Gold. Two major portfolio exits have recently validated the fund's investment approach, even as geopolitical tensions introduce near-term volatility.

The fund's most significant development was the acquisition of Arizona Sonoran by Hudbay, announced during PDAC week in an all-stock deal valuing Arizona Sonoran at approximately $9.35 per share. Olive had followed the company since its private-stage days, building its position opportunistically over time. Management at Arizona Sonoran executed on every stated objective — maximising the resource and resolving the complex Nuton joint venture — ultimately clearing the path for Hudbay's offer and delivering a substantial multiple on the fund's cost basis.

The second exit involved Sailfish Royalties, where Olive realised approximately 4x returns after the company sold its Spring Valley royalty asset. With initial purchases around $1.00 per share and the stock trading near $4.40 following the announcement, the position generated roughly 400% returns over two years — a strong outcome for a lower-risk royalty investment.

The annual PDAC mining conference in Toronto drew approximately 42,000 registrants, an all-time high well above the historical range of 20,000–30,000. Beyond the headline numbers, fund managers Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson noted the quality of emerging deal flow: genuinely new companies, freshly acquired projects, and existing stories advanced meaningfully by new exploration results — not simply recycled ideas repackaged for a stronger market.

Recent military actions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, combined with softer economic data from China and the U.S., have triggered a flight to liquidity that pulled mining equities down 10–15% across some positions. The fund had proactively raised cash ahead of the weakness using seasonal trading models and currently holds approximately 10% in cash, which it plans to deploy opportunistically into pullbacks.

Despite near-term uncertainty, Olive maintains a positive full-year outlook, anticipating a potential rotation into copper later in 2026 as commodity leadership evolves — and actively searching for a replacement copper name following Arizona Sonoran's sale.

Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com