Return To Tangibles | Where Are the Opportunities | Swiss Mining Institute Panama

Why It Matters

A renewed commodity super‑cycle is redirecting capital from overvalued tech to tangible assets, offering higher returns and reshaping mining investment strategies.

Key Takeaways

• Gold often falls during conflicts, contrary to investor expectations.
• Higher oil prices raise mining costs, impact varies by commodity.
• A new commodity super‑cycle began in 2021, driving strong returns.
• Secular themes shift; tech dominance wanes as commodities rise.
• IPO, M&A, and convertible activity in mining remain robust despite war.

Summary

The Swiss Mining Institute’s Panama panel opened day two by reviewing the shift back to tangible assets, with a focus on gold, oil, and a broader commodity super‑cycle. Panelists from wealth‑management firms and mining specialists debated why gold has not surged despite geopolitical tensions and how oil price dynamics affect mining costs. Key insights included the historical pattern of gold falling during wars, the inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar, and the modest cost impact of oil—about a 2% increase in sustaining costs for every $10 rise in oil prices, varying by mine type. The speakers presented a secular‑theme framework, arguing that each market cycle is dominated by a single theme and that the current commodity super‑cycle, which started in 2021, has already delivered roughly 180% return on a broad commodity index. Adrian highlighted that gold’s price often reacts to rumors rather than surprise events, and that liquidity pressures can force investors to sell gold during crises. He also noted that the Buffett indicator now signals an overvalued tech sector and an undervalued commodity space, reinforcing the case for a shift toward physical assets such as lithium, copper, and even rare metals like rhodium. The panel concluded that investors should re‑balance toward commodities, using tactical filters to identify cheap, de‑risked exposures, while capital markets remain active: IPOs, M&A, and convertible financing in mining are robust, especially for copper, which faces a projected supply deficit. This transition to tangibles could reshape portfolio allocations for high‑net‑worth investors and institutional allocators alike.

Original Description

Return To Tangibles | Where are the opportunities | Swiss Mining Institute Panama

The second panel at the Swiss Mining Institute in Panama on the “return to tangibles,” where Mark Fairbairn was joined by John Barker, Arun Daniel, Wasif Latif, Garrett Goggin and Adrian Day. The discussion centered on why investors are rotating back into real assets, with strong conviction around gold, copper and energy.

Key points and insights ⬇️

Gold doesn’t always rally on geopolitical conflict, as markets often price in events early and the US dollar acts as a competing safe haven.

Energy prices impact mining costs, but the effect is often overstated relative to strong commodity price margins.

The panel emphasised a structural “return to tangibles,” with commodities entering a potential new supercycle after years of underinvestment.

Copper was highlighted as a standout opportunity, supported by strong demand trends and increasing capital markets activity.

Institutional investors remain underexposed to mining, while emerging trends like tokenization are beginning to bridge digital finance and real assets.

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