Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in January

Key Takeaways

• Freddie's Jan delinquency rose to 0.60%, up 0.01%.
• Fannie’s Jan delinquency rose to 0.59%, up 0.01%.
• Both rates remain near pre‑pandemic lows.
• Delinquencies highest for 2004‑2008 loan vintages.
• Historic peaks were 4.20% (Freddie) and 5.59% (Fannie).

Pulse Analysis

The latest GSE data underscores how low‑rate mortgage markets have stabilized after the pandemic shock. Serious delinquency—defined as three or more missed payments or foreclosure—hovered just above the half‑percent mark for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, a level comparable to the pre‑COVID baseline. This stability reflects tighter underwriting standards and the gradual exit of borrowers from forbearance programs, even as the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes test household cash flows.

A deeper dive into vintage performance reveals that the residual risk is concentrated in loans originated before the 2009 reform era. For Fannie Mae, loans from 2004‑2008 exhibit delinquency rates above 2%, while newer cohorts (2009‑2025) stay under 0.6%. Freddie’s vintage profile mirrors this pattern, with legacy assets bearing the brunt of defaults. These older loans, tied to the housing bubble, continue to shape the GSEs’ credit risk models and influence the pricing of agency‑backed securities.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of delinquency rates will hinge on the interaction between rising interest rates and the remaining forbearance pool. As borrowers adjust to higher mortgage payments, any resurgence in missed payments could pressure the GSEs’ balance sheets and affect investor sentiment toward MBS. Nonetheless, the current figures suggest that systemic risk remains limited, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook for the broader housing finance market.