TBA Bidding, HELOC, DSCR, CRM, HMDA Analysis, MI Tools; Events Throughout 2026

Key Takeaways

• Curinos reports March mortgage volume up 35% YoY, 30% MoM.
• Refinance rates fell 73 bps YoY, 5‑6 bps MoM.
• Agile's May 1 webinar will showcase automated TBA bidding tools.
• Borrower rates dropped 12.5 bps, hitting lowest in a month.
• Purchase demand slipped, while refinances rose 15% YoY.

Pulse Analysis

The latest Curinos data underscores a pronounced rebound in mortgage origination, with March volume surging 35% from a year earlier. This uptick is driven largely by a 5% weekly increase in refinances, which are up 15% year‑over‑year, reflecting borrowers’ appetite for lower rates after a brief rally that shaved 12.5 basis points off closing costs. At the same time, purchase demand remains tepid, lagging behind last‑year levels, suggesting that while rate‑sensitive borrowers are returning to the market, broader consumer confidence may still be constrained by modest tax refunds and lingering economic uncertainty.

Lenders are turning to technology to capture the upside of this volatility. Agile’s upcoming webinar on May 1 will highlight its automated TBA bidding platform, which promises to standardize pricing, cut settlement errors, and streamline the end‑to‑end workflow from trade setup to award. By centralizing execution and offering customizable interfaces, such tools can reduce operational drag and improve price transparency—critical advantages in a market where even a few basis points can swing profitability. Automation also positions lenders to better manage the growing complexity of agency‑MBS pricing, especially as Treasury yields hover around 3.8% for the two‑year and 4.3% for the ten‑year notes.

Macro‑economic indicators provide a mixed backdrop. The March Producer Price Index came in at 0.5% month‑over‑month, well below expectations, signaling that inflationary pressure may be easing despite energy price volatility. However, lower-than‑expected individual tax refunds could dampen discretionary spending, potentially limiting future purchase activity. As the Federal Reserve continues to monitor inflation trends, mortgage rates are likely to stay near current lows, sustaining refinance momentum while purchase volumes await a clearer consumer sentiment signal.