Homebuying Intentions Decline Further in U.S.

Why It Matters

Weak near‑term demand combined with scarce supply could dampen price acceleration and strain the mortgage market, especially for younger buyers. The outlook suggests prolonged affordability challenges and a slower rotation of homes on the market.

Key Takeaways

• Near‑term homebuying intent hits 25%, Gallup’s lowest since 2013.
• 67% of adults view the market as a bad time to buy.
• 18‑34 year‑olds’ five‑year purchase plans fell to 29% from 57%.
• Only 18% of owners plan to sell within five years, limiting inventory.

Pulse Analysis

The Gallup poll arrives at a moment when median U.S. home prices hover around $409,000 and mortgage rates, though slightly lower than a year ago, remain well above the historic lows of 2020‑2021. Elevated financing costs squeeze disposable income, prompting many potential buyers to reassess affordability. Even as prices are expected to rise—65% of respondents forecast increases—higher rates erode purchasing power, reinforcing the perception that now is a bad time to buy. This dynamic creates a feedback loop: reduced demand tempers price growth, yet lingering optimism about future appreciation keeps expectations buoyant.

Demographic trends sharpen the picture. Millennials and Gen Z renters, traditionally the engine of first‑time purchases, are now the most hesitant cohort. Their five‑year buying intent has plunged from a high of 57% in the mid‑2010s to just 29% today, while the share willing to wait ten years or more has risen to 41%. This timeline shift suggests a delayed entry into homeownership, potentially postponing wealth‑building opportunities for a generation already burdened by student debt and stagnant wages. As younger buyers defer purchases, the market may see a slower turnover of homes, reducing the pool of resale properties and further tightening supply.

Supply constraints compound the demand side weakness. Only 18% of current homeowners expect to sell within five years, and 65% say they are unlikely to sell in the foreseeable future. With a large portion of the existing stock effectively locked in, inventory remains scarce, sustaining price pressure despite waning buyer enthusiasm. Policymakers and lenders may need to address this imbalance through incentives for existing owners to list or by expanding affordable‑housing programs. Until seller sentiment improves or financing conditions ease, the U.S. housing market is likely to remain a challenging arena for would‑be buyers, especially younger adults seeking their first home.