WAYYYY Too Many Condos
Why It Matters
An entrenched condo oversupply threatens price stability and lender exposure, reshaping investment strategies through the next decade.
Key Takeaways
- •Over 4,000 new condos sit unsold currently in major markets.
- •Additional 8,000–4,000 units expected to hit market next year.
- •24,000 condo completions projected for next year alone.
- •Appraisal failures may trigger lawsuits, forcing distressed condo sales.
- •Oversupply could linger through 2029‑2030 despite developers' optimistic forecasts.
Summary
The video warns that a wave of new condominium units is flooding the market, creating a looming oversupply. The presenter cites his own research on the Frank Report, noting more than 4,000 unsold condos already sitting idle.
He breaks down the pipeline: another 8,000‑4,000 units are slated to come online next year, followed by roughly 24,000 completions in the same period. If even a fraction fail to appraise or close, developers could face lawsuits and be forced to rent or sell at distressed prices.
The speaker references industry chatter about a future “valley” of zero inventory around 2029‑2030, but argues that the backlog of unsold condos will keep supply high well beyond that horizon. He urges viewers to consult the full analysis on his blog for detailed numbers.
For builders, lenders, and investors, the surplus signals tighter margins, potential price corrections, and heightened credit risk. Renters may benefit from increased availability, while buyers could see bargaining power improve as the market corrects.
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