'We Just Don't Have Enough Proof to Call the Bottom Yet': Storey on Toronto Housing Market
Why It Matters
Understanding whether Toronto’s market has truly bottomed informs pricing strategies for sellers, timing decisions for buyers, and risk assessments for investors amid shifting rates and immigration trends.
Key Takeaways
- •New listings down year‑over‑year, tightening Toronto housing supply
- •Sales volume steady, indicating early stage of market recovery
- •Prices must plateau before market can be declared bottomed
- •Condo market dominated by end‑users, investors largely absent
- •Potential rate hikes could dampen buyer confidence and sales
Summary
The video centers on Toronto’s housing market, with realtor Tom Story explaining why the market has not yet reached a bottom. He notes that new listings have fallen sharply year‑over‑year, tightening supply, while sales volume remains roughly level with last March, suggesting the first steps of a gradual recovery. Story emphasizes that price stability—sales prices holding steady or moving sideways—is the missing piece needed to confirm a bottom. He points to a slow, month‑by‑month decline in most property types over the past 18 months and stresses that buyers are waiting for certainty before committing. Key remarks include, “We just don’t have enough proof to call the bottom yet,” and observations that end‑users now drive condo purchases, with investors largely absent. Specific neighborhoods such as the Beaches, Junction and Leslieville continue to attract multiple offers, while the condo segment, representing about 70% of listings, remains oversupplied. The implications are clear: sellers must price competitively, buyers may delay until rates and prices stabilize, and investors should tread cautiously. Ongoing immigration policy shifts and potential interest‑rate hikes add further uncertainty, shaping Toronto’s market dynamics for the coming months.
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