Dry Van and Reefer Spot Rates Slip as Flatbed Spot Rates Climb

Why It Matters

The split signals shifting demand patterns, prompting carriers to re‑balance capacity and pricing strategies across equipment types.

Key Takeaways

• Dry van rates down 6¢, still 22% YoY higher
• Reefer rates fell 17¢, 33% YoY increase
• Flatbed rates up 4¢, 9% YoY growth
• Flatbed volumes rose 4.7%, van volumes down 12.9%
• Seasonal softness contrasts with flatbed resilience

Pulse Analysis

The latest spot‑freight data underscores a growing bifurcation in U.S. trucking markets. While dry‑van and refrigerated equipment are experiencing the expected seasonal dip—dry‑van rates slipping 6 cents and reefer rates dropping 17 cents—their year‑over‑year premiums of 22% and 33% respectively remain robust. Flatbed carriers, however, are enjoying a rare upside, with rates climbing just over 4 cents and volumes ticking up 4.7%, marking the strongest YoY performance since mid‑2022. These trends reflect nuanced demand shifts, where construction and infrastructure projects continue to fuel flatbed activity while e‑commerce‑driven van loads soften.

For carriers, the divergent trajectory translates into strategic capacity allocation decisions. Operators with mixed fleets must weigh the opportunity cost of deploying vans and reefers into a softening market against the upside potential on flatbeds, where load‑to‑truck ratios are improving. Pricing models should incorporate the persistent YoY premiums for van and reefer lanes, ensuring that short‑term rate dips do not erode profitability. Meanwhile, flatbed operators can justify incremental rate hikes and consider expanding flatbed inventory to capture lingering demand from sectors such as energy, heavy equipment, and seasonal construction.

Looking ahead, macro‑economic variables will likely reinforce this split. Fuel price volatility, driver shortages, and evolving supply‑chain constraints could keep van and reefer rates anchored above pre‑2023 levels, while continued infrastructure spending may sustain flatbed growth. Market watchers should monitor weekly DAT and FTR releases for early signals of demand pivots, especially as seasonal cycles reverse in the spring. Aligning fleet composition with these emerging patterns will be critical for maintaining margin resilience in an increasingly segmented freight environment.