Flightradar24 Gulf Airline Recovery Index

Key Takeaways

• GARI indexes flights to pre‑war baseline of 100
• Emirates leads recovery, reaching 380 index by March 27
• All five airlines show steady climb from early March lows
• Kuwait Airways and Gulf Air excluded due to closed hubs
• Storage‑bound aircraft omitted, focusing on active daily flights

Pulse Analysis

The Middle East’s aviation sector has been under unprecedented strain since the escalation of hostilities in early 2026, with Israel‑Iran confrontations prompting widespread airspace bans and direct attacks on airport infrastructure. Gulf carriers, which previously accounted for a sizable share of international traffic, saw their schedules collapse as demand evaporated and routes were grounded. This disruption not only hurt airline revenues but also rippled through tourism, cargo logistics, and ancillary services that depend on steady flight operations. Understanding the pace of recovery is therefore critical for gauging the region’s broader economic rebound.

Flightradar24’s Gulf Airline Recovery Index (GARI) quantifies that rebound by indexing each carrier’s daily flight count to a pre‑war average of 100. Using data from February 28 onward, the index excludes aircraft parked in long‑term storage to focus on active operations. The chart reveals a precipitous drop to single‑digit levels in early March, followed by a steady climb: Emirates surged to an index of 380, Etihad to 177, while Air Arabia and Flydubai hovered around the mid‑150s by March 27. Kuwait Airways and Gulf Air remain off the radar as their home bases stay closed.

The upward trajectory captured by GARI offers a barometer for investors and tourism planners assessing the Gulf’s return to normalcy. A robust Emirates rebound suggests that premium long‑haul traffic is recovering faster than low‑cost regional routes, which could reshape capacity allocations and airport slot negotiations. However, the exclusion of storage‑bound fleets hints that many airlines still hold surplus aircraft, a lingering cost pressure. As airspace restrictions ease and regional confidence rebuilds, the index is likely to edge closer to pre‑war levels, signaling renewed demand for both passenger and cargo services.