Revisiting My 2022 Prediction About EVs

Key Takeaways

• EVs captured ~5% of US new‑car sales in 2022, flat since
• California’s 2035 EV‑only ban remains a long‑term goal, not imminent
• GM and Ford have missed 2025 EV volume targets, delaying market shift
• Charging infrastructure growth lags behind vehicle sales, limiting consumer confidence
• Federal tax credits and state incentives still drive most EV purchases

Pulse Analysis

The electric‑vehicle narrative that surged in 2022—fuelled by headlines of a "tipping point" and aggressive automaker pledges—has encountered a reality check. Data from industry sources show that EVs held roughly five percent of U.S. new‑car registrations in 2022 and have struggled to gain momentum since, as price sensitivity, limited model variety, and lingering range anxiety keep many buyers anchored to internal‑combustion options. This stagnation matters because it directly impacts the capital allocation decisions of legacy manufacturers and the valuation models of investors who anticipated a rapid displacement of gasoline‑powered fleets.

Policy remains a double‑edged sword in the EV equation. California’s mandate that only zero‑emission vehicles be sold after 2035 signals a clear long‑term direction, yet the timeline offers little immediate pressure on manufacturers to overhaul production lines. Federal tax credits, currently capped at $7,500 per vehicle, continue to be the primary catalyst for sales, but recent legislative uncertainty has introduced volatility into consumer purchasing decisions. Meanwhile, the rollout of public charging stations lags behind vehicle deliveries, creating a classic chicken‑and‑egg dilemma that hampers broader adoption and erodes confidence among potential owners.

Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory will hinge on three interrelated forces: sustained fiscal incentives, decisive regulatory frameworks, and accelerated infrastructure investment. Automakers that can align their product pipelines with realistic rollout schedules—while leveraging partnerships to expand charging networks—stand to capture the eventual upside. For investors and policymakers, the lesson is clear: the EV revolution is not an overnight phenomenon but a gradual transition that requires coordinated effort across technology, finance, and government to achieve the scale once predicted as imminent.