Air Freight Activity in the Gulf Continues Recovery, but Pace Slows

Why It Matters

The expanded DHL routes and gradual capacity lift improve supply‑chain resilience in a geopolitically sensitive region, while limited utilisation keeps freight rates elevated for shippers.

Key Takeaways

• DHL adds Leipzig‑Dubai‑Hong Kong B777 freighter, five weekly flights.
• New thrice‑weekly Leipzig‑Jeddah B474F service targets pharma shipments.
• Gulf airports operate at 51% of pre‑crisis freight capacity overall.
• Dubai cargo airport runs at only 38% capacity, limiting throughput.
• Iraq and Bahrain airspace reopen, improving regional transit times.

Pulse Analysis

DHL’s latest network moves signal a decisive step toward normalising Gulf air logistics after the months‑long conflict that disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. Starting next week the carrier will operate a Boeing 777‑200F freighter on a Leipzig‑Dubai‑Hong Kong rotation, offering five weekly departures that reconnect a major European hub with the Emirates’ cargo gateway. A complementary thrice‑weekly Leipzig‑Jeddah B474F service, dedicated to pharmaceutical and life‑science cargo, adds specialised capacity for high‑value shipments. These routes not only diversify DHL’s Middle‑East footprint but also provide shippers with more predictable transit times amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Despite these additions, the Gulf’s overall air‑freight capacity remains well below pre‑crisis levels. DHL data show regional airports operating at roughly 51 % of their historic utilisation, with Dubai World Central (DWC) lagging at just 38 % capacity. Conversely, airports such as Jeddah and Muscat have surged past 100 % utilisation, creating bottlenecks in ground handling and raising the risk of delays. The uneven recovery reflects differing carrier strategies: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Fly Dubai are gradually restoring slots, yet many international airlines have yet to resume regular services, keeping total lift constrained.

The fragmented rebound has tangible cost implications for businesses that rely on fast, reliable air cargo. Limited capacity drives up spot rates and forces forwarders to prioritize high‑margin, time‑critical goods, especially pharma shipments that now benefit from the dedicated Leipzig‑Jeddah lane. As Iraq and Bahrain reopen their commercial airspace, transit times are expected to improve, potentially easing pressure on hub airports. Analysts anticipate that once full airline schedules return, Gulf freight utilisation could climb toward 70‑80 % by year‑end, offering a more balanced market and encouraging further investment in cargo infrastructure.