Airline Emissions in Europe Top Pre-Covid Levels Despite Pledge to Decarbonise

Why It Matters

The gap in carbon pricing undermines EU climate targets and gives low‑cost airlines a competitive edge while the sector’s overall carbon footprint climbs.

Key Takeaways

• Ryanair emitted 16.6 Mt CO₂ in 2025, 50% above 2019.
• EU aviation emissions reached 195 Mt CO₂, 2% higher than pre‑Covid.
• ETS taxes only intra‑EU flights, leaving long‑haul emissions untaxed.
• Expanding ETS could generate ~$4.5 bn for sustainable fuel by 2030.
• Ryanair claims lower per‑passenger emissions despite overall growth.

Pulse Analysis

European aviation’s carbon trajectory is starkly at odds with its public decarbonisation promises. Data from the think‑tank Transport & Environment shows that total CO₂ from departing flights rose to 195 Mt in 2025, surpassing the pre‑pandemic baseline. Ryanair, the region’s fastest‑growing carrier, alone contributed 16.6 Mt – a 50% jump from 2019 – even as it touts newer, fuel‑efficient planes. The surge reflects a broader shift toward low‑cost carriers, whose volume growth outpaces efficiency gains, pushing overall emissions higher despite incremental technological improvements.

A critical policy blind spot lies in the EU’s emissions‑trading system, which only taxes flights that stay entirely within Europe. Long‑haul services, typically operated by legacy airlines with higher fuel burn, escape the carbon price, while intra‑EU routes shoulder the cost – Ryanair pays about $55 per tonne versus Lufthansa’s $22. Extending the ETS to all departing flights could unlock roughly $4.5 bn in revenue by 2030, funds that could be earmarked for sustainable aviation fuel production, contrail‑mitigation research, and other low‑carbon initiatives. The potential financial windfall underscores how market‑based mechanisms can complement regulation to accelerate industry transformation.

Airlines are pushing back, arguing that the ETS unfairly penalises low‑cost carriers and that per‑passenger emissions are actually falling. Ryanair maintains its average of 64 g CO₂ per passenger‑kilometre is the lowest among major European airlines, even as its total output climbs. Nonetheless, the broader climate community sees the rising emissions as a warning sign that voluntary efficiency measures alone are insufficient. Aligning carbon pricing with the full spectrum of flights is essential for the EU to meet its 2050 net‑zero goal and to prevent a carbon‑intensive aviation sector from outpacing policy safeguards.