Aramco Expects Oil, Natural Gas Supply Chain Disruptions for Months Even if Hormuz Reopens Soon

Why It Matters

The prolonged blockage throttles a key export route, tightening global oil supplies and pressuring LNG logistics, which could lift prices and reshape trade flows.

Key Takeaways

• 600 vessels stuck in Persian Gulf as Hormuz remains closed
• Daily transits limited to 2–5 ships, throttling oil flow
• Aramco cut 100 million barrels per day of crude capacity
• Natural gas output remains stable despite shipping constraints

Pulse Analysis

The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly a third of global oil shipments, remains effectively sealed, leaving an estimated 600 tankers—including crude carriers, LNG vessels and product ships—marooned in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, reports that only two to five vessels are able to transit each day, a drastic reduction that has forced the company to trim roughly 100 million barrels per day of crude throughput. Even a rapid reopening would not instantly clear the backlog, meaning supply constraints could linger for months.

While Aramco’s natural‑gas output remains steady, the bottleneck in maritime logistics threatens downstream LNG projects that rely on timely feed‑gas deliveries. Operators such as Venture Global and Shell have already flagged potential curtailments in feed‑gas nominations to North American and European terminals, prompting a scramble for alternative supply sources. The limited transits also pressure spot LNG pricing, as buyers compete for the few vessels able to move cargoes out of the Gulf, amplifying price differentials between Asian and European markets.

The protracted disruption underscores the strategic vulnerability of relying on a single maritime corridor for energy exports. Companies are accelerating investments in over‑land pipelines, rail freight and secondary ports to hedge against future chokepoint closures. Meanwhile, the sustained cut in crude flow is likely to tighten global oil markets, supporting higher Brent and WTI prices until inventories can be replenished. Analysts expect the Hormuz impasse to keep volatility elevated, prompting traders to factor geopolitical risk premiums into forward contracts across oil, gas and LNG markets.