China's Robotaxi Fleet to Nearly Triple in 2026, Goldman Says

Why It Matters

The accelerated deployment reshapes mobility economics and creates a new battleground for AI supremacy, offering sizable revenue streams for domestic and foreign players. Investors will closely watch Chinese firms expanding globally and U.S. market growth.

Key Takeaways

• China robotaxi fleet to reach 14,000 units in 2026.
• Robotaxis will represent 36% of ride‑sharing vehicles by 2035.
• Robotruck fleet projected to hit 760,000 units by 2035.
• U.S. robotaxi market valued at $19 bn by 2030, $48 bn by 2035.
• Chinese firms WeRide, Pony AI, Didi, Baidu eye global expansion.

Pulse Analysis

China’s autonomous‑vehicle push is moving from pilot projects to full‑scale operations. Goldman’s latest note shows the robotaxi count jumping to 14,000 units in 2026, a 195% year‑over‑year rise, and predicts that more than a third of all ride‑sharing trips will be driverless by 2035. The rapid scaling is driven by several city‑level break‑even cases and aggressive capital deployment by firms such as WeRide, Pony AI, Didi and Baidu, positioning China as a manufacturing and software hub for the next generation of mobility.

Across the Pacific, the United States is seeing a comparable surge in market valuation. Goldman now expects the U.S. robotaxi sector to generate $19 billion in revenue by 2030 and $48 billion by 2035, up from earlier $7 billion forecasts. This growth reflects broader consumer acceptance, regulatory clarity in key states, and the entry of legacy automakers partnering with AI startups. The expanding revenue pool is attracting venture capital, public‑market investors, and defense interest, given the dual‑use potential of autonomous platforms.

The convergence of these trends signals a strategic AI race that extends beyond chips into real‑world logistics and transportation. Chinese firms are already eyeing overseas deployments, leveraging their robotruck projections of 760,000 units by 2035 to capture freight corridors. Meanwhile, U.S. policymakers grapple with balancing innovation incentives against national‑security concerns. For investors and industry leaders, the key takeaway is that autonomous vehicle ecosystems will shape not only mobility economics but also geopolitical dynamics in the decade ahead.