Gulf Carrier Capacity Share Dropped From 12 Percent to Just 4 Percent

Why It Matters

The sharp reduction in Gulf capacity tightens global supply, raising freight costs and reshaping trade‑lane economics, directly affecting manufacturers and logistics providers worldwide.

Key Takeaways

• Gulf carriers’ global capacity share fell from 12% to 4%.
• Global air cargo demand rose 7% YoY in February 2026.
• Capacity dropped 7% month‑to‑date, driving rates up 7% weekly.
• Asia‑Europe routes gained 29% capacity YoY to offset Middle East loss.
• Spot rates reached $3.38 per kilogram, up 6% week‑on‑week.

Pulse Analysis

The sudden closure of key Middle East air corridors has exposed the fragility of global air‑cargo networks. Gulf carriers, which traditionally provide a vital bridge between Asia, Europe and the Americas, saw their collective capacity share plunge from 12% to just 4%. This contraction not only reduced lift availability but also forced airlines to chart longer detours around restricted airspace, increasing flight times and operational complexity. For shippers, the immediate effect is tighter capacity and heightened exposure to geopolitical risk.

In response, carriers have redirected freighter assets toward Asia‑Europe routes, boosting capacity on those lanes by 29% year‑on‑year. While this reallocation helps absorb some of the lost lift, it does not restore overall market supply, leaving the sector undersupplied. The scarcity has translated into a 7% week‑on‑week rise in average freight rates to $2.84 per kilogram and a 6% jump in spot rates to $3.38 per kilogram. Higher jet‑fuel prices and the need for longer routings further amplify cost pressures, prompting forward‑looking logistics firms to reconsider inventory strategies and hedge against price volatility.

Looking ahead, airlines and freight forwarders will likely pursue a mix of tactical and strategic measures. Short‑term tactics include leasing additional freighters, optimizing load factors, and negotiating priority slots at congested hubs. Longer‑term, the industry may accelerate investments in alternative corridors, such as expanded trans‑Pacific services, and explore emerging technologies like autonomous cargo drones to diversify routing options. For businesses dependent on timely deliveries, monitoring capacity trends and securing capacity early will be essential to mitigate the ripple effects of ongoing Middle East disruptions.