IATA Flags Growing Risks Despite January’s Air Cargo Demand Growth

Why It Matters

The divergent regional trends and geopolitical risks signal that airlines must recalibrate capacity and pricing strategies to safeguard margins and supply‑chain reliability.

Key Takeaways

• Africa demand +18.2%, strongest regional growth.
• Americas demand down, only region with capacity decline.
• Asia‑Pacific capacity record, growth slows since 2020.
• Europe‑Asia lane up 15.2%, 35 months growth.
• Jet‑fuel prices fell 6.5%, easing cost pressures.

Pulse Analysis

January 2026 marked a robust rebound for global air cargo, with demand measured in cargo tonne‑kilometres rising 5.6% year‑on‑year. The surge was driven primarily by strong manufacturing sentiment, as the global PMI climbed to 51.8, its highest in 18 months, and export‑order confidence nudged toward expansion. Regional performance diverged sharply: Africa posted an 18.2% demand jump, while the Americas slipped for the sixth month in a row. These dynamics underscore a rebalancing of trade flows as emerging markets regain momentum.

Capacity expanded 3.6% year‑on‑year, delivering the highest January ACTK on record, yet the pace of growth slowed, signaling emerging capacity fatigue. Asia‑Pacific airlines reached a historic supply level but recorded their weakest January growth since 2020, suggesting airlines are cautious about over‑building amid uncertain demand. Europe‑Asia corridors continued their 35‑month winning streak with a 15.2% volume increase, while the Asia‑North America lane contracted slightly. The mixed capacity picture forces carriers to fine‑tune fleet utilization and pricing strategies to protect margins.

Looking ahead, IATA warns that the sector will be tested by external shocks. Ongoing uncertainties around U.S. trade policy could reshape trans‑Atlantic freight volumes, while the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East adds geopolitical risk to key supply chains. Meanwhile, jet‑fuel prices fell 6.5% in January, offering temporary cost relief but leaving airlines vulnerable to future price volatility. Stakeholders will need to balance growth opportunities in Africa and the Middle East with prudent capacity management to navigate a volatile macro‑environment. Airlines that invest in digital tracking and flexible routing are better positioned to capture shifting demand.