Imports Sitting Out the Freight Market Flip

Why It Matters

A subdued import flow paired with dwindling truck capacity limits the supply chain’s ability to absorb demand spikes, raising volatility risk for shippers and carriers alike.

Key Takeaways

• Inbound Ocean TEU Index at 1,715, far below 2021 peak
• Shippers shifted from just‑in‑case to just‑in‑time inventory in 2025
• Truckload capacity has been quietly eroding for three years
• Leaner warehouses limit ability to absorb demand shocks
• Intermodal reliance may wane as trucking capacity tightens

Pulse Analysis

The latest FreightWaves chart shows the Inbound Ocean TEU Volume Index (IOTI) hovering around 1,715, a level more typical of multi‑year lows for this season. After the pandemic‑driven surge that pushed the index to an all‑time high of 2,692 in June 2021, import demand has softened. Shippers, wary of service disruptions and tariff volatility in 2024‑25, adopted a just‑in‑case ordering strategy that inflated inventories. As geopolitical tensions eased and tariff concerns settled, the industry pivoted back toward just‑in‑time practices, trimming warehouse footprints and reducing safety stock.

Concurrently, the trucking sector faces a prolonged capacity drain. The SONAR Truckload Volume Index (STVI) indicates that while tender volumes have rebounded to historic levels, rejection rates remain elevated because carriers have exited the market over the past three years. Regulatory scrutiny and driver shortages have accelerated this bleed, leaving the industry in one of its softest downturns. With fewer trucks available, intermodal routes—traditionally the bridge between ocean imports and inland distribution—are losing their flexibility, especially as transit times lengthen during peak summer months.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, the interplay between thin inventories and constrained trucking capacity could trigger a freight market flip. Shippers may be forced to re‑stock ahead of demand, reviving just‑in‑case behavior and reigniting intermodal demand. Carriers, meanwhile, will need to balance capacity constraints with rising freight rates to avoid service gaps. Stakeholders that monitor the IOTI and STVI trends will be better positioned to anticipate pricing pressure and adjust logistics strategies accordingly.