In 3 GIFs: How the Iran War Has Changed Tanker Traffic Through Hormuz, Malacca Straits

Why It Matters

The disruption curtails a fifth of world oil supply, tightening global markets and forcing traders to reroute shipments, which raises freight costs and price volatility. Asian refiners and consumers face heightened risk as alternative routes become congested and storage demand spikes.

Key Takeaways

• Hormuz crossings fell from ~46 to under 2 daily since war.
• Only three Chinese VLCCs have transited Hormuz since closure.
• Malacca traffic dipped 14% to ~71 daily, down from 83.
• US seizure of tanker Touska cut Hormuz crossings to two vessels.
• Reduced Hormuz flow may pressure Asian oil imports and prices.

Pulse Analysis

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of global crude, has sent shockwaves through the oil logistics chain. Bloomberg’s vessel‑tracking data shows daily transits collapsing from an average of 46 pre‑war to fewer than two after Iran’s February shutdown. The scarcity of crossings—only three Chinese VLCCs have slipped through since the closure—highlights the heightened risk environment, especially after the U.S. Navy’s seizure of the tanker Touska, which drove daily movements down to just two vessels.

Asian markets have felt the ripple effect via the Strait of Malacca, the alternative artery for West African and North American crude destined for China, Japan, and South Korea. While the Malacca corridor still handles about 71 tankers a day, that represents a 14% decline from its pre‑war average of 83. The reduced flow reflects fewer shipments exiting Hormuz, thinning downstream traffic and nudging freight rates upward. For Singapore, a major refining and trading hub, the dip is modest but signals a potential shift toward increased on‑shore storage and trading activity as volatility spikes.

Looking ahead, prolonged Hormuz disruption could force a more permanent rebalancing of oil routes, prompting shippers to diversify fleets and invest in larger, more flexible vessels capable of navigating alternative passages. The heightened uncertainty also amplifies price risk for downstream users, prompting refiners to hedge more aggressively. Stakeholders across the supply chain—from insurers to port operators—must monitor geopolitical developments closely, as any further escalation could accelerate the transition toward a more fragmented, cost‑intensive global oil market.