Israel May Let Emirates Fly Tel Aviv–New York — And U.S. Airlines Would Hate It

Key Takeaways

• Emirates may launch Dubai‑Tel Aviv‑New York seventh‑freedom service.
• U.S. approval needed; not covered by current Open Skies treaty.
• Israeli subsidies could support FlyDubai operations from Eilat.
• U.S. carriers Delta and United likely to oppose new competition.
• Political timing may align with Israel’s upcoming legislative elections.

Pulse Analysis

Emirates’ interest in a Dubai‑Tel Aviv‑New York seventh‑freedom route reflects a broader shift in global aviation policy. The U.S.–U.A.E. Open Skies Treaty already permits multi‑stop services, but a direct Tel Aviv‑New York leg falls outside its scope, requiring a separate waiver from the Department of Transportation. Such a waiver would set a precedent for other carriers seeking similar rights, potentially expanding the network of non‑hub, point‑to‑point flights that have become popular among premium travelers.

The competitive landscape in the U.S. market could change dramatically. Delta, which partners with El Al, and United, already aligned with Emirates, would face a new rival on the high‑margin New York‑Tel Aviv corridor. American Airlines, still suspended its Israel service after the October 7 attacks, might view the entry as an opportunity to re‑enter the market with a differentiated product. Meanwhile, Israeli subsidies aimed at FlyDubai’s Eilat operations illustrate how governments can use financial incentives to attract foreign carriers, a tactic that could spur further liberalization in the region.

Timing is also political. The proposal emerges as Israel prepares for legislative elections in October, suggesting that the route could be leveraged as a symbol of deepening ties with the Gulf states. If approved, the service would not only boost tourism and business travel between three major economies but also signal a new era of aviation diplomacy in the Middle East, where airlines increasingly act as extensions of foreign policy.