Jet Fuel Supply Could Take Months to Recover After Hormuz Reopening

Why It Matters

Extended jet‑fuel shortages pressure airline margins and could dampen travel demand, especially in emerging markets that rely on imports.

Key Takeaways

• Jet‑fuel supply recovery may take months after Hormuz reopens
• Crack spreads stay high, keeping jet‑fuel prices above baseline
• Asian carriers add fuel stops and cut routes to manage shortages
• Export bans hit low‑income, import‑dependent markets hardest

Pulse Analysis

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz extends beyond crude oil shipments; it is a linchpin for the region’s refining hub that produces a significant share of the world’s jet fuel. When conflict threatens the waterway, refineries in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait lose feedstock, forcing them to curtail output. Even a swift diplomatic de‑escalation does not instantly restore capacity, as plants must restart complex units, recalibrate catalysts and secure safe transport routes for crude, all of which add weeks to months to the supply chain.

Airlines across Asia are feeling the ripple effects. With jet‑fuel prices already doubled earlier in the year, carriers are forced to absorb higher operating costs, trim schedules, and in some cases, load extra fuel at home airports to avoid costly mid‑flight refuel stops. The pressure is most acute in lower‑income markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan, where domestic jet‑fuel production is minimal and reliance on imports makes them vulnerable to any export curtailments. These constraints translate into higher ticket prices and reduced capacity, potentially slowing post‑pandemic travel recovery in the region.

Looking ahead, the recovery of jet‑fuel supply hinges on both geopolitical stability and refinery economics. If crude flows resume, China and South Korea are likely to restart refined‑product exports, but the incentive to boost jet‑fuel output depends on the crack spread—the margin between crude and refined products. A sustained high spread could motivate refineries to prioritize jet fuel, gradually easing shortages. However, airlines must plan for a multi‑month lag, incorporating fuel‑hedging strategies and flexible routing to mitigate future disruptions.