Lithuanian Intermodal Declined Spectacularly in 2025

Why It Matters

The sharp intermodal collapse threatens Lithuania’s shift toward greener, rail‑based logistics and underscores structural barriers that could impede EU‑wide sustainability goals.

Key Takeaways

• Intermodal volume fell 70.8% YoY, hitting near‑zero levels
• Overall rail freight down 4.7% to 24.4 Mt in 2025
• LTG Cargo controls 96% of Lithuanian rail freight market
• Government rail subsidies rose to €82.2 M (~$90 M) in 2025
• Infrastructure utilization at one‑third EU average, hindering competitiveness

Pulse Analysis

Lithuania’s rail freight sector entered 2025 on a downward trajectory, with total tonnage slipping to 24.4 million tonnes—a 4.7% decline from the previous year. The most striking signal came from intermodal operations, which contracted by a staggering 70.8%, effectively erasing a key conduit for cross‑border cargo. While overall revenue only fell 2% to €263.6 million (about $287 million), the underlying volume loss highlights a market increasingly reliant on a single carrier, LTG Cargo, which now commands 96% of freight movements. This concentration limits competition and reduces the sector’s resilience to demand shocks.

Analysts point to a mix of policy and structural factors driving the slump. The Lithuanian Communications Regulatory Authority (RRT) cites an unfavorable tax regime that penalises rail relative to road haulage, and a market structure that stifles new entrants despite formal openness. Infrastructure utilization sits at roughly one‑third of the European average, indicating under‑used assets and higher per‑tonne costs. In response, the government boosted rail‑related subsidies to €82.2 million (≈$90 million) in 2025, up from €65.6 million the year before, but critics argue that funding alone cannot offset the need for broader regulatory reform and investment in efficiency.

The broader implications extend beyond Lithuania’s borders. A weakened intermodal network hampers the EU’s ambition to shift freight from road to rail, a cornerstone of climate‑neutral logistics strategies. Yet the market’s fragility also creates openings for niche operators—such as Laude Smart Intermodal, which recently entered the scene—to carve out specialized services if the regulatory environment becomes more supportive. Future policy choices, particularly around tax incentives and infrastructure modernization, will determine whether Lithuania can revive its rail freight sector and contribute meaningfully to a greener European supply chain.