Middle East Seat Capacity Plummets

Why It Matters

The sharp capacity decline threatens Thailand’s tourism revenue from a lucrative region, prompting a strategic market shift to safeguard earnings and diversify visitor sources.

Key Takeaways

• Middle East seat capacity to Thailand fell 33.7% in May.
• Emirates cut Dubai‑Bangkok seats 20%; Qatar halved Doha‑Bangkok seats.
• TAT targets Saudi Arabia tourists spending ~110,000 baht ($3,100) per trip.
• African markets show strong growth, up to 66% in Morocco 2025.
• Long‑stay family accommodation demand rises despite higher airfares.

Pulse Analysis

Thailand’s tourism officials are grappling with a sudden 33.7% drop in seat capacity from the Middle East, a direct fallout of the ongoing US‑Iran conflict and broader geopolitical uncertainty. Airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad have slashed seats on key routes, forcing the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to reassess its reliance on Gulf travelers. While the immediate impact is a 32% year‑on‑year decline in arrivals, the agency is leveraging data‑driven insights—like 1.21 million regional travel searches in May—to shape a more resilient strategy.

The TAT’s response centers on market diversification and product adaptation. By targeting Saudi Arabian tourists, who are projected to spend roughly 110,000 baht per trip (about $3,100), Thailand aims to capture higher‑value spenders despite the reduced flight inventory. Simultaneously, the authority is courting fast‑growing African markets—South Africa, Morocco, and Mauritius—where growth rates have surged up to 66% in 2025. Campaigns with airlines and online travel agents are being rolled out from the Dubai office, while familiarisation trips will showcase Thailand’s beach, wellness, and family‑friendly offerings.

On the ground, demand for long‑stay, family‑oriented accommodation is rising, with travelers seeking three‑ to four‑bedroom serviced apartments for stays of up to four weeks. This shift reflects heightened price sensitivity and a focus on flexible cancellation policies amid lingering conflict concerns. As the June‑August school break approaches, TAT expects a rebound in bookings, especially for luxury and wellness segments, positioning Thailand to offset the short‑term capacity shock and maintain its competitive edge against regional rivals such as Malaysia and Bali.