Middle East War Dampens Schiphol’s March Cargo Volumes

Why It Matters

The sharp drop in Middle‑East cargo highlights how geopolitical risk can instantly disrupt European air‑freight flows, forcing airlines and shippers to re‑route and re‑balance capacity. Schiphol’s performance serves as a bellwether for broader European logistics resilience amid regional conflicts.

Key Takeaways

• Schiphol cargo fell 2.6% to 128,281 tonnes in March.
• Middle East shipments dropped 47% inbound, 50% outbound.
• Full freighter share rose to 59%, up 3 points YoY.
• Far East cargo grew 8% inbound, 10% outbound.
• Road‑feeder service handled 42,132 tonnes, 25% of total.

Pulse Analysis

The ongoing Middle‑East war has quickly translated into a measurable dip in European air‑cargo volumes, and Schiphol’s March data provides a clear illustration. A 2.6% decline to 128,281 tonnes marks the airport’s first notable contraction since the pandemic, driven primarily by a 47% fall in inbound and a 50% plunge in outbound shipments to the region. This volatility underscores how quickly geopolitical flashpoints can erode demand for high‑value, time‑critical goods that traditionally flow through the hub.

Despite the regional setback, other trade lanes showed resilience. Cargo from the Far East rose 8% inbound and 10% outbound, while Africa posted double‑digit gains, reflecting strong demand for agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. The shift toward full‑freighter operations—now 59% of the mix—suggests airlines are reallocating capacity to routes with steadier yields, compensating for lost belly‑space revenue. Meanwhile, the commodity basket remains diverse, with electrical machinery and perishables leading, indicating that essential supply chains are still active despite broader headwinds.

Looking ahead, Schiphol’s 42,132 tonnes of road‑feeder cargo, accounting for roughly a quarter of total volumes, could become a stabilising factor as shippers seek multimodal alternatives. Europe’s broader cargo decline of 4.2% last year signals a need for strategic flexibility, especially as conflict zones fluctuate. Airlines and logistics providers that can swiftly pivot capacity, leverage feeder networks, and diversify origins will be better positioned to mitigate future geopolitical shocks and capture growth in emerging markets.