Truckload’s Shrinking Miles

Why It Matters

Shorter hauls increase truck turnover but do not alleviate capacity constraints, keeping the market tight and pushing rates higher. The shift also signals a structural reallocation of freight from trucking to rail on longer distances, reshaping competitive dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• Haul length dropped 21% to ~500 miles since June 2024
• Shorter hauls boost truck cycles but rejection rates stay above 17%
• Intermodal rail gains on long lanes, pulling freight from truckloads
• Spot rates climb across dry van, reefer, and flatbed segments
• Rail container volumes rose 11% internationally, 14% domestically YoY

Pulse Analysis

The 21% contraction in average haul distance reflects more than a seasonal blip; it signals a strategic realignment by shippers who are increasingly breaking shipments into shorter legs to improve flexibility and reduce inventory exposure. Data from SONAR shows a steady, almost linear decline since mid‑2024, indicating that the change is embedded in supply‑chain planning rather than a temporary market shock. This evolution aligns with broader trends toward near‑shoring and regional distribution hubs, which naturally generate shorter truck trips.

While shorter hauls theoretically free up truck capacity, the market tells a different story. Tender rejection rates have surged past 17%, a multi‑year peak, and spot rates for dry vans, reefers, and flatbeds are all on the rise. The paradox stems from a mismatch between the increased frequency of truck cycles and the overall demand surge of 10‑15% year‑over‑year. Carriers are forced to prioritize higher‑margin loads, leaving a larger share of lower‑priced freight on the reject pile, which in turn fuels price pressure on the available capacity.

Intermodal rail is emerging as the primary catalyst behind the shrinking haul lengths. Railroads have reclaimed long‑haul market share by expanding infrastructure and leveraging a cost advantage on transcontinental routes. Recent SONAR data shows international container volumes up 11% and domestic volumes up 14% year‑over‑year, underscoring rail’s growing role. As rail continues to dominate longer lanes, trucking will likely concentrate on short‑haul, time‑sensitive shipments, reinforcing the current capacity squeeze and keeping spot rates elevated. Stakeholders should monitor rail capacity expansions and potential shifts in shippers’ mode‑choice strategies as the market evolves.