Worldwide Tonnages and Rates Stabilise

Why It Matters

The data shows that despite geopolitical volatility, demand and pricing strength are sustaining revenue for carriers, while persistent capacity gaps—especially in the Gulf—could pressure shippers and spur further freighter deployments.

Key Takeaways

• Global tonnages flat week‑on‑week, +2% YoY
• Average rate $3.23/kg, spot $3.75/kg, +50% YoY
• Capacity up 1% weekly, but Gulf still 48% below pre‑war
• Asia‑Pacific tonnage +5% YoY, spot rates $5.16/kg
• High fuel costs and freighter use keep pricing elevated

Pulse Analysis

The week‑21 figures from WorldACD illustrate a rare moment of equilibrium in a market that has been buffeted by holiday spikes, war‑related disruptions, and soaring fuel prices. While East Asian volumes rebounded after the region’s extended holiday, overall global tonnages barely moved, suggesting that the surge was largely a seasonal correction rather than a sustained demand breakout. Supply‑chain managers in the U.S. and Europe, still grappling with elongated lead times, are finding air freight an essential buffer, keeping the market’s demand curve relatively firm.

Pricing dynamics are equally nuanced. The average rate of US$3.23 per kilo masks a broader uplift in spot market activity, where rates climbed to US$3.75 per kilo—up 50 % year‑on‑year. This premium is driven by a confluence of tight capacity, especially on passenger‑derived belly space, and elevated jet‑fuel costs that have eroded carrier margins. Freight forwarders are increasingly turning to dedicated freighters, a shift reflected in the higher utilization of these assets and the resulting price resilience across regions, with Asia‑Pacific spot rates topping US$5.16 per kilo.

Capacity recovery, however, remains uneven. A modest 1 % weekly increase belies the stark shortfall in the Middle East and Gulf, where available slots are roughly half of pre‑war levels. This scarcity limits network flexibility and forces airlines to prioritize high‑value, time‑critical shipments, further inflating rates. For shippers, the strategic implication is clear: securing capacity early and exploring multi‑modal alternatives will be crucial as the market navigates ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the gradual rebalancing of passenger and freighter supply.