After MEPC 84: Positions, Proposals, and What Comes Next

The 84th session of the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 84) marked a pivotal pause in the ship‑emissions agenda. After the ES2 meeting in October 2023 was adjourned, the net zero framework (NZF) – originally slated to enter force in March 2027 and become effective in 2028 – remained unsettled. Delegates used MEPC 84 to gauge political will, but no consensus emerged, leaving the regulatory timeline in flux and underscoring the complexity of aligning technical standards with divergent national interests.

Negotiations revealed starkly contrasting positions. A coalition of Liberia, Panama and Argentina introduced a reset proposal that ties emission‑reduction targets to the availability and price of alternative fuels, effectively discarding the NZF’s economic fund. Japan offered a lighter‑touch amendment that preserves overall ambition while adjusting trajectories, yet both lack clear enforcement mechanisms. Pacific island states and a bloc of Middle Eastern countries called for a carbon levy of $100‑$150 per tonne and a complete NZF mothball, respectively. The European Union continues to back the approved NZF but wrestles with a north‑south divide, while the United States remains steadfast against any IMO fund and insists the EU Emissions Trading System be dismantled, demanding an “explicit acceptance” adoption process.

The outcome of MEPC 84 was a procedural compromise: two intersessional meetings leading to MEPC 85 and a one‑day continuation of the ES2 adoption session, likely symbolic. Technical work on guidelines—GFI calculations, wind‑propulsion, sustainable fuel certification, zero‑fuel definitions, and life‑cycle assessment—presses on, ensuring the regulatory scaffolding remains robust. However, the earliest any revised framework could become law is now 2029, with further delays probable. Industry stakeholders should monitor the evolving compromise proposals, as the next six months will shape the decarbonisation pathway and influence investment decisions in alternative fuels and emissions‑reduction technologies.