Eopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains for Transportation

Why It Matters

China’s grip on critical minerals threatens the reliability and security of the global clean‑transport supply chain, prompting urgent diversification to protect economic and national interests.

Key Takeaways

• EV and transport rely on minerals China dominates.
• Rare earth export controls triggered supply scramble in 2025.
• U.S. underestimated downstream economic leverage of rare earths.
• China’s mining, processing, and refining clusters create monopoly.
• Diversifying supply chains is critical for national security.

Summary

The MIT Mobility Forum session examined how the electrification of transportation hinges on a handful of critical minerals—lithium, cobalt, nickel, neodymium, dysprosium and others—most of which are mined, processed, or refined in China. Speakers highlighted that China controls roughly 60% of rare‑earth mining, 80% of processing and 90% of permanent‑magnet production, creating a choke point for electric‑vehicle batteries, motors, jet‑engine coatings and LiDAR systems.

Data showed that while oil and gas are geographically dispersed, critical minerals are highly concentrated. Export controls on heavy rare earths introduced in 2024 sparked a scramble among U.S., European and Asian automakers to secure supplies. The panel noted chronic under‑investment in domestic extraction and refining, and a trade‑war dynamic that underestimated the downstream economic impact—$6 billion in rare‑earth sales translates to roughly $10 trillion of value across the mobility sector.

Jinhua Zhao warned that the supply chain “is overwhelmingly through one country,” and John Moavenzadeh linked mineral dependence to national‑security concerns previously absent from automotive boardrooms. Tomasz Nadrowski illustrated the leverage gap, comparing a modest $6 billion rare‑earth market to a $10 trillion downstream ecosystem, and traced China’s monopoly to abundant subsoil resources and clustered industrial parks that enable efficient by‑product handling.

The discussion concluded that without a coordinated strategy—ranging from domestic mining incentives to allied processing partnerships—U.S. and allied manufacturers face strategic vulnerability. Policymakers must address both the physical supply gap and the geopolitical weaponization of mineral dominance to safeguard the clean‑mobility transition.

Original Description

Transportation equipment, from electric vehicle batteries to jet engine turbine blades, relies on a variety of critical minerals, such as lithium, graphite, cobalt and rare earth elements. This session describes the upstream supply chains that feed mobility industries, explores how China has come to control many of these critical minerals, and asks what could be done to ensure access to critical minerals across multiple regions.

Speakers:

Tomasz Nadrowski - Author, Mineral War

John Moavenzadeh - Executive Director, MIT Mobility Initiative