News in Brief Podcast | Week 15 2026 | Ceasefire, Capacity Crunch and Rates Still Up

Why It Matters

The ceasefire’s limited immediate impact on shipping capacity, combined with soaring fuel costs and a shrinking vessel pool, reshapes ocean and air freight markets, influencing pricing, capacity allocation, and strategic decisions for global shippers.

Key Takeaways

• Ceasefire opens Red Sea, but container capacity remains constrained.
• Seale's fleet shrank to 14 ships, raising second‑hand market interest.
• Air freight growth lost six points weekly, delaying normalization.
• Fuel prices up 160% in Asia, pressuring perishables and e‑commerce.
• Spot rates diverge: North Europe down, Trans‑Pacific up amid fuel costs.

Summary

The Loadar "News in Brief" podcast examined three intertwined supply‑chain themes: the newly announced two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, the ongoing capacity crunch in ocean freight, and the latest movements in freight rates and air cargo. While the ceasefire technically reopens the Strait of Hormuz, analysts caution that container capacity will not instantly rebound, as carriers have already re‑routed vessels through Gulf bypass ports and remain wary of lingering risk. Data from Zenator shows the conflict displaced roughly 250,000 TEU of weekly capacity, yet weekly shipments into Saudi Gulf ports have risen 19% as new services fill the gap. Meanwhile, Singapore‑based Seale Shipping’s fleet collapsed from 208,000 TEU to 62,000 TEU after returning 16 chartered vessels amid U.S. sanctions allegations, sparking rumors of a shutdown and potentially feeding a thin second‑hand market. Air freight faces a different shock: six weeks of the conflict erased about six percentage points of expected weekly growth, translating to a full‑year forecast of roughly 1% lower capacity growth. Martin Vulmer highlighted that Asian fuel prices are now 160% higher than a year ago, squeezing low‑value perishable goods and e‑commerce shipments, while data‑center equipment remains resilient due to its high value density. Freight rates reflect this mixed picture. Spot indices show a 9% drop to North Europe and a modest 3% dip to the Mediterranean, yet Trans‑Pacific lanes posted 9% and 7% gains respectively. The divergence underscores that while Red Sea disruptions matter, broader fuel cost pressures and contractual disputes over surcharge transparency dominate rate dynamics.

Original Description

After a two-week break, News in Brief returns with a major geopolitical development at the top of the agenda: a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz - at least for now. But with fresh attacks still reported and negotiations only just beginning, uncertainty remains high across global supply chains. Gavin van Marle breaks down what this means for ocean shipping, from disrupted services and carrier pullbacks to the big question: will freight rates fall, or stay elevated amid ongoing risk and operational uncertainty? We’re also joined by Aevean’s Head of Consulting, Maarten Wormer, to explore how the airfreight market is reacting, from shifting capacity and routing decisions to whether any sense of normal seasonality is returning in a market shaped by constant disruption. With war risk surcharges, volatile fuel costs and unanswered questions around future transits, this episode unpacks what the ceasefire really means for shippers, and why stability may still be some way off.