News in Brief Podcast | Week 16 2026 | Fuel Surcharges, Contract Advice, and IEEPA Refunds

Why It Matters

Fuel surcharges and legal jurisdiction shifts are inflating logistics costs and risk, forcing shippers to adapt tender strategies and contract protections to preserve margins.

Key Takeaways

• Ceasefire leaves few container ships transiting Hormuz, carriers remain cautious.
• Bunker fuel prices still 64% above pre‑conflict levels, driving costs.
• Drury’s short‑term case predicts modest rate spike; prolonged case warns recession.
• China’s Article 295 expands court jurisdiction, raising contract uncertainty for foreign shippers.
• Air freight rates up 1.4% weekly, 20% YoY, fuel pressures persist.

Summary

The Loadar "News in Brief" podcast examined how the nine‑day ceasefire in the Middle East continues to shape ocean and air freight markets, highlighted rising fuel surcharges, and flagged a legal shift in China’s maritime code alongside a new tariff‑refund process.

Operationally, only a handful of vessels have dared to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with carriers like CMA CGM and Costamare remaining wary. Global bunker prices sit 64% above pre‑conflict levels, prompting shippers to renegotiate quarterly versus monthly fuel adjustment clauses. Drury’s forecasting model presents a short‑term scenario through June with modest rate spikes, while a 12‑month pessimistic outlook warns of soaring oil prices, demand contraction to as low as 0.5‑1.3% growth, and broader economic recession.

Legal experts warned that China’s revised maritime code, effective May 1, gives Chinese courts broader jurisdiction over international shipping contracts, creating uncertainty for foreign carriers and cargo owners. In air freight, rates rose 1.4% week‑over‑week and remain about 20% higher than a year ago, with Heathrow lane prices up 70% YoY, underscoring persistent fuel‑driven cost pressures.

For shippers, the takeaway is clear: isolate bunker surcharges in tenders to preserve base‑rate negotiating power, monitor evolving legal risk in China, and prepare contingency plans for a potentially prolonged disruption that could reshape global trade volumes and cost structures.

Original Description

This week’s News in Brief takes stock of a fragile pause in Middle East tensions, as the US-Iran ceasefire enters its second week. But while the Strait of Hormuz remains open, uncertainty still hangs over global supply chains - and the impact on both ocean and air freight is far from resolved.

Charlotte Goldstone is joined by Drewry’s director of supply chain advisory Chantal McRoberts to break down the latest on container shipping, including scenario planning for how long the conflict could last, and what that means for capacity, rates and contract negotiations.

Alex Lennane brings the airfreight update, with markets showing signs of stabilisation rather than recovery. Capacity is returning in some regions, but fuel costs, disruption and uneven demand are keeping rates elevated and unpredictable.

Also in this episode: what China’s revised Maritime Code could mean for international shipping contracts, and a long-awaited step forward in the US tariff refund process - though key questions remain unanswered.

From geopolitics to pricing pressure, this episode unpacks a market still navigating uncertainty - even as tensions temporarily ease.