Why Closing the Strait of Hormuz Could Have Devastating Effects on Global Oil Shipping | DW News
•February 28, 2026
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Why It Matters
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would shock global oil markets, raise energy costs, and reshape geopolitical alignments, making it a critical risk for investors and policymakers alike.
Key Takeaways
- •Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz amid escalation.
- •Strait handles ~20% of global crude, price spikes expected.
- •Closing would hurt Iran’s own oil revenue and regional ties.
- •Regional actors, Russia, China influence Iran’s decision calculus.
- •Uncertainty could raise insurance costs and disrupt maritime traffic.
Summary
The DW News segment focuses on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warning that no vessel may transit the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one‑fifth of the world’s crude oil passes. The announcement comes amid heightened military tension and a looming OPEC meeting, prompting analysts to assess the strategic calculus behind a potential closure.
Marina Mirren, a military analyst at King’s College London, notes that even a brief disruption could lift crude prices by $10‑$20 per barrel and drive up maritime insurance premiums. Iran’s own economy relies heavily on oil exports, so a self‑inflicted blockade would erode state revenue and strain nascent diplomatic overtures with Gulf neighbours such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Mirren also highlights the broader geopolitical matrix: regional actors, Russia, and China all weigh in on Tehran’s options, while the United States and Israel monitor the situation for possible retaliatory strikes. Past incidents, like the 12‑day war in 2025, show Arab states’ willingness to mediate, underscoring the delicate balance between deterrence and escalation.
The uncertainty surrounding the strait’s status threatens to destabilize global energy markets, elevate shipping costs, and force oil‑importing nations to reconsider supply routes. Policymakers and investors must watch diplomatic signals closely, as any move toward closure could trigger a cascade of economic and security repercussions.
Original Description
Iran's Revolutionary Guards say the escalation in fighting in the region means the Strait of Hormuz is no longer safe and is essentially closed to traffic, according to media reports.
In a statement carried by the Tasnim news agency, the Guards said ships had been warned to stay away "due to the insecure atmosphere around the strait because of the military aggression by the US and Israel and the responses of Iran." "With the cessation of passage of ships and tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the strait has been basically closed," the statement added.
DW speaks to military analyst Marina Miron, King's College London, about the implications of closing the Strait of Hormuz
#straitofhormuz #iran
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