Net Zero by 2050 Is Beyond Reach, but R&D, SAF Work Continues

Why It Matters

The shift signals a fundamental reassessment of aviation’s decarbonisation strategy, influencing capital allocation, regulatory frameworks, and competitive dynamics across regions. Investors and policymakers must adjust expectations as incremental technology gains replace sweeping, near‑term promises.

Key Takeaways

• IATA 2050 net‑zero goal now deemed unrealistic.
• SAF production lags behind demand and cost targets.
• Hydrogen aircraft timelines pushed beyond 2035.
• Europe maintains efficiency upgrades while revising zero‑emission plans.
• China accelerates eVTOL certification using domestic battery expertise.

Pulse Analysis

The International Air Transport Association set an ambitious Net Zero by 2050 target in 2021, coupling it with milestones for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, hydrogen, batteries, and hybrid power. Over the past two years, industry leaders have repeatedly highlighted the technical and economic gaps that make the timeline unrealistic. Tim Clark of Emirates famously warned against unattainable promises, a sentiment echoed by carriers that have since softened or abandoned the original goals. This growing skepticism forces the sector to reassess its decarbonisation roadmap.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel remains the most mature alternative, yet production capacity and cost barriers limit widespread adoption. Hydrogen propulsion, once touted for a 2035 commercial aircraft, has been postponed as energy density and storage challenges persist. Battery‑electric concepts, including eVTOLs, are progressing toward certification, but weight constraints keep them confined to short‑range or vertical‑takeoff markets. Hybrid configurations show promise for specific airframes, but they depend on next‑generation batteries that are unlikely to arrive before the 2030s. European manufacturers such as Airbus, Rolls‑Royce, and Safran continue incremental efficiency upgrades while recalibrating long‑term zero‑emission ambitions.

Asia, led by China, is betting heavily on electric vertical take‑off and landing vehicles and leveraging its dominance in solar panels and high‑performance battery cells. The country’s rapid certification of eVTOL prototypes demonstrates a different pathway to decarbonisation, focusing on urban air mobility rather than traditional airline routes. This divergence creates new competitive dynamics, as Western OEMs may need to partner with Asian battery suppliers or invest in eVTOL technology to stay relevant. Ultimately, the fragmented progress across SAF, hydrogen, and electric solutions suggests that the industry will achieve incremental emissions cuts rather than a single, sweeping breakthrough by 2050.

Net Zero by 2050 is beyond reach, but R&D, SAF work continues

By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm · Feb. 2, 2026

When the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) adopted its carbon Net Zero by 2050 policy at the October 2021 Annual General Meeting, it included milestones for increasing the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The outline also included the adoption of alternative energy technologies like hydrogen, batteries, and hybrids.

Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline. A voice of reality when it comes to eco‑aviation. Credit: Emirates Airline.

Some, including LNA, quickly concluded that the timeline and some of the technologies were unachievable. Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, attended the IATA AGM. “Don’t make promises you can’t keep,” he told the assembly.

Since then, airlines across the globe have relaxed or even abandoned the IATA goals for their internal efforts.

SAF remains an elusive alternative. So does hydrogen. Battery‑powered eVTOLs appear just around the corner for certification. However, developers of battery‑powered commuter and regional airliners hit the reality that the weight of the batteries needed for even flights of a few hundred miles weighs more than is feasible. Some hybrid technologies appear to have promise, yet likely are technologies that appear to have promise for certain aircraft architectures, but need higher‑performance batteries, which pushes these into the next decade.

Still, Europe continues to place a priority on sustainable aviation. Airbus, engine manufacturers and key suppliers continue their drive toward more sustainable aviation. However, Airbus backed off its 2035 target for a hydrogen‑powered airplane. Rolls‑Royce, key engine supplier MTU, components supplier GKN, and others, strive for improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions. Safran, a partner with GE Aerospace in the 50‑50 joint venture CFM International, and an interiors manufacturer, likewise seeks environmental improvements to their products.

In Asia, China is making a big bet on eVTOLs (and solar and automobile electric power). Its eVTOL industry is already flying in China. The country is the biggest producer in the world of solar panels and high‑performance battery cells. China’s auto industry has a line‑up of electric cars from small to luxury based on its battery technology.