Outlook 2026: The State of the Major eVTOL Projects

Why It Matters

The collapse highlights a market correction, forcing investors and manufacturers to focus on realistic certification pathways and near‑term revenue models rather than speculative long‑range claims.

Key Takeaways

• Lilium, Volocopter, Supernal, CityAirbus exited 2024‑25.
• Only EHang EH216‑S holds Chinese certification and AOC.
• Remaining projects target 2027+ certification.
• Current eVTOL missions limited to 10‑15 minutes, fair weather.
• Early hype ignored trade‑offs between range, speed, endurance.

Pulse Analysis

The eVTOL boom of the early 2020s gave way to a sobering reality in 2025, as a cascade of high‑profile failures exposed the gap between visionary promises and engineering feasibility. Companies like Lilium and Volocopter, once heralded as the future of urban air mobility, folded under mounting technical challenges, regulatory hurdles, and capital shortages. This wave of exits underscores the sector’s shift from speculative hype to a more disciplined, risk‑aware approach, where only projects with clear certification roadmaps survive.

Amid the downturn, EHang’s EH216‑S stands as the sole certified eVTOL, having secured Chinese Type, Production, and Air Operator Certificates between 2023 and 2025. Its limited 10‑ to 15‑minute, fair‑weather missions illustrate the near‑term niche that urban air mobility can realistically fill—primarily short‑range airport‑to‑city shuttles replacing helicopters. Regulators worldwide are tightening certification criteria, emphasizing safety, noise, and battery reliability, which pushes most Western developers to target 2027 or beyond for market entry.

For investors and OEMs, the lesson is clear: future growth hinges on incremental certification milestones, robust battery technology, and viable business models rather than grandiose range or speed claims. Companies that align product development with realistic operational envelopes and secure early regulatory approvals are poised to capture the emerging demand for short‑haul aerial services. The industry’s consolidation may ultimately yield a more sustainable urban air mobility ecosystem, but patience and capital discipline will be essential as the next wave of eVTOLs prepares for certification in the late 2020s.

Outlook 2026: The state of the major eVTOL projects

By Bjorn Fehrm · February 9, 2026

The eVTOL market saw a sobering 2025 after two of its high flyers, Lilium and Volocopter, both ceased operations in 2024. Further operations ceased in 2025, with Hyundai’s Supernal halting further development, as did Airbus with its CityAirbus. Textron halted Nexus development, then shuttered the division, and Overair ceased operations after Hanwa stopped investing.

We have one VTOL that received local Chinese Type Certification in 2023, Production Certificate in 2024, and Air Operator Certificate (AOC) in 2025. The drone‑multicopter‑looking EHang EH216‑S (Figure 1) was cleared to operate tourist flights in China. No other eVTOL project is close to certification, not even for 2026. The major players plan for certification in 2027 or later.

Figure 1. The only certified eVTOL, the EHang EH216‑S. Source: EHang.

The almost euphoric enthusiasm over eVTOLs that existed before COVID—when car manufacturers got involved as this could be the thing that took over personal transport for crowded cities—has now calmed down, as the operational use of the current generation of eVTOLs is 10‑ to 15‑minute missions in fair weather, replacing helicopter services from the airport to the city centre.

The original story was different as early developers like Joby Aviation painted with a broad brush. There were statements about 150 nm trips, 200 kt speeds, and unbeatable economics, with batteries that lasted 10,000 flights. What investors and pundits didn’t understand was that these were unrelated statements about physical limits: there was no “AND” between them.