AI Is Growing the Pie — But Not Sharing It Equally

Key Takeaways

• AI exposure boosted sector output 7‑10% by 2024.
• Employment rose 4% in AI‑augmented sectors, flat in automating.
• Labor’s share of AI gains fell to ~29%, firms captured most.
• Younger, college‑educated workers saw larger wage increases.
• New firms grew 2.6% in AI‑exposed industries.

Pulse Analysis

The April 2026 study by Andrew Johnston and Christos Makridis leverages a near‑complete U.S. employer dataset, merging BEA GDP figures, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and ACS individual records. By constructing an AI‑exposure index from pre‑2020 occupational mixes, the authors isolate the causal impact of enterprise AI tools using a difference‑in‑differences framework. This rigorous methodology provides a rare, data‑driven lens on how AI is reshaping the macroeconomy, moving the debate beyond speculative headlines to measurable outcomes.

Productivity gains materialized early, with a one‑standard‑deviation increase in AI exposure delivering a 7‑10% jump in sector output by 2024, well before consumer‑facing hype peaked. Crucially, the study differentiates augmentative AI—where humans and machines collaborate—from automating AI that replaces tasks outright. Augmentative exposure drove a 4% rise in employment and modest wage growth, whereas pure automation showed negligible job creation and even reduced wage bills, highlighting the importance of the human‑in‑the‑loop dynamic for labor market health.

For investors and policymakers, the distribution of gains is telling. While both output and firm entry rose, labor’s share of AI‑generated value fell to roughly 29%, a stark contrast to the typical 60% share in the broader economy. Capital owners are capturing the lion's share of the productivity pie, especially in sectors dominated by automation. This asymmetry suggests that future equity allocations, workforce upskilling, and regulatory frameworks will need to address the divergent trajectories of capital‑intensive versus labor‑augmenting AI deployments to ensure inclusive growth.