Not Hype, the Compute Shortage Is Real

Why It Matters

The compute shortage fuels higher margins for leasing firms and reshapes AI infrastructure economics, signaling a structural profit upside for the sector.

Key Takeaways

• A-share compute leasing stocks hit daily limit-up amid AI demand surge
• Token usage rose >40% YoY, reaching 140 trillion daily
• Overseas H100 rental prices jumped 40% in five months
• Cloud vendors raised AI compute fees 5‑34% worldwide
• Leasing firms adopt token models, shifting valuation from P/E to P/S

Pulse Analysis

The recent rally in China’s compute‑leasing market reflects a broader, global tension between exploding AI workloads and a constrained supply of high‑end GPUs. As inference workloads proliferate, token consumption on API aggregators has surged dramatically, with daily usage surpassing 140 trillion—a 40% increase since late 2025. This demand spike coincides with a persistent chip shortage that has driven overseas H100 rental rates up 40% in just five months, leaving second‑tier cloud providers scrambling for capacity. The scarcity has turned compute into a premium strategic asset, prompting firms to reassess pricing and allocation strategies.

In response, major cloud players—Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, AWS, and Google—have rolled out steep price adjustments, ranging from 5% to over 30% for AI compute and related services. More importantly, the industry is transitioning from a pure "sell compute" model to a token‑based revenue framework. By embedding usage metrics into contracts, leasing firms capture a share of the value generated by AI applications, improving cash flows and justifying a shift in valuation metrics from earnings‑based (P/E) to sales‑based (P/S) multiples. This business‑model upgrade enhances bargaining power, especially for firms that can bundle hardware access with model‑as‑a‑service offerings.

Domestic large‑model developers are accelerating this trend. Chinese models now dominate global token usage, with weekly consumption outpacing U.S. counterparts by over 30% and driving API price hikes of up to 83%. Policy initiatives, such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s compute‑bank and compute‑supermarket programs, further lower entry barriers for SMEs, expanding the addressable market. Together, sustained demand, supply constraints, and innovative monetization are likely to keep compute‑leasing stocks on an upward trajectory, making the sector a focal point for investors seeking exposure to the AI infrastructure boom.