The State of AI: How War Will Be Changed Forever

Why It Matters

AI’s penetration of warfare could fundamentally alter conflict dynamics, lower the threshold for lethal action, and outpace regulatory oversight, creating strategic and ethical risks for governments and the private sector alike.

Summary

The piece, a joint FT‑MIT Technology Review dialogue, examines how generative AI is moving from research labs into active military use, from logistics and cyber‑operations to AI‑assisted targeting systems such as Israel’s Lavender database. It highlights a stark scenario of AI‑driven drones and disinformation in a potential China‑Taiwan conflict, while noting that no fully autonomous lethal weapons are yet deployed. The conversation also tracks a rapid policy shift, exemplified by OpenAI’s 2024‑2025 pivot to defense contracts and a doubling of venture capital into defense AI, underscoring growing commercial incentives. Experts warn that existing legal frameworks lag behind the technology, raising concerns about bias, loss of human control, and the risk of an AI‑driven arms race.