"A.I. and Our Economic Future," Professor Chad Jones

Why It Matters

The outcome will reshape productivity, labor markets, and the timing of economic transformation, altering investment, regulation, and social policy choices; understanding these scenarios helps governments and firms prepare for very different economic trajectories.

Summary

In a wide-ranging lecture, economist Chad Jones outlined two extreme futures for AI: a Silicon Valley “explosive growth” scenario in which AI automates software, accelerates research, and — when paired with robotics — automates physical tasks, producing runaway productivity gains; and a countervailing “business-as-usual” scenario where AI diffuses like past general-purpose technologies and long-run GDP per capita growth remains near historical trends. He traced the near-term path from AI automating coding to scalable virtual research assistants and then to robot deployment, noting important technological and timing uncertainties. Jones framed the debate with historical US growth data showing a steady ~2% per-year rise in living standards despite past revolutions, and used economic-growth models to explore where reality may lie between the extremes. He emphasized that while explosive growth is plausible, it is neither guaranteed nor free of critical bottlenecks and policy implications.

Original Description

Technologies such as electricity, semiconductors, and the internet have been transformative, reshaping economic activity and dramatically increasing living standards throughout the world. In some sense, artificial intelligence is simply the latest of these general purpose technologies. However, the case can certainly be made that this time is different. Automating intelligence itself arguably has broader effects than electricity or semiconductors.

What if machines -- A.I. for cognitive tasks and A.I. plus advanced robots for physical tasks -- can perform every task a human can but more cheaply? What does economics have to say about this possibility, and what might our economic future look like? Professor Charles "Chad" Jones explores the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on our economic future.

Recorded during GSB Spring Reunions, May 1, 2026.