Our AI Future: From Abundance to Apocalypse

Why It Matters

The divergence between an explosive‑growth AI future and a steady‑state scenario carries major implications for GDP, employment, inequality and regulation: preparing for either extreme will shape investment, labor policy and national competitiveness. Understanding these paths helps businesses and governments prioritize risk management, training and infrastructure ahead of potentially fast and large economic shifts.

Summary

Stanford economist Chad Jones sketches two contrasting futures for AI: an optimistic “abundance” path in which AI automates software engineering, iteratively improves itself, and—paired with advanced robotics—can perform virtually any cognitive or physical task, driving explosive economic growth within decades; and a “business-as-usual” scenario where history’s long-run trend of roughly 2% real per‑capita growth continues, with AI providing incremental productivity gains rather than a discontinuity. Jones grounds both views in historical analogies (notably electrification) and quantitative growth models, arguing the technology’s trajectory depends on whether AI can scale into fully general virtual workers and enable rapid hardware and robotics breakthroughs. He emphasizes large uncertainties in timing and scale, and explores social consequences ranging from broad abundance to severe disruption. The paper urges policymakers and business leaders to weigh both possibilities rather than assume a single inevitable outcome.

Original Description

Chad Jones, a professor of economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business, recently published a paper, “AI and Our Economic Future.” Using more than 100 years of economic data, he modeled several potential AI-infused economic futures we may experience. These include the good (abundance, we never work again), the not-so-bad (business more or less as usual), and the ugly (a superintelligence that turns on us, among other catastrophic options). Cheery stuff, Jones acknowledges, but essential to face.

“I think the ability for an AI to do everything on a computer that the best software engineer can do, that seems like it’s either here now or will be here within five years easily,” Jones says. “Hacking the electric grid, hacking the financial system, these kinds of scenarios are things that we definitely have to worry about. The good news is, I think if we get through that, the ability of AI to transform the economy for good, it is really there and present. And, that would be a very great and bright future.”

Related Content:

- Chad Jones faculty profile: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/chad-jones

- What’s the Price Tag for Preventing an AI Apocalypse? https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/whats-price-tag-preventing-ai-apocalypse

- At What Point Do We Decide AI’s Risks Outweigh Its Promise? https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/what-point-do-we-decide-ais-risks-outweigh-its-promise

If/Then, from Stanford GSB, features conversations with faculty that explore how their research deepens our understanding of business and leadership.

Find out more about If/Then: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/business-podcasts/if-then

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