AIVenture Capital
The 2045 Superintelligence Timeline: Epoch AI’s Data-Driven Forecast
•November 24, 2025
Original Description
Epoch AI researchers reveal why Anthropic might beat everyone to the first gigawatt datacenter, why AI could solve the Riemann hypothesis in 5 years, and what 30% GDP growth actually looks like. They explain why "energy bottlenecks" are just companies complaining about paying 2x for power instead of getting it cheap, why 10% of current jobs will vanish this decade, and the most data-driven take on whether we're racing toward superintelligence or headed for history's biggest bubble.
Timestamps
00:00 - Introduction
02:51 - Pre-training plateaus vs post-training innovations
05:10 - Why software-only singularity seems unlikely
11:16 - Evaluating Dario's bold predictions on AI capabilities
16:12 - AI's labor market impact over the next decade
24:27 - Computer use breakthroughs and real-world utility
28:06 - GDP growth forecasts: from 1% to 30% scenarios
35:00 - What comes after current benchmarks are solved
37:16 - Timeline for AI solving major math problems
46:54 - Robotics as primarily a hardware problem
50:06 - Data center infrastructure reality vs hype
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