Why the Soviet-Chinese Alliance Couldn't Last - Sarah Paine

Why It Matters

The episode underscores that ideology alone cannot bind great powers when strategic competition and historical security paradigms drive state behavior — a lesson relevant for interpreting past Cold War splits and today’s China–Russia relationship. Understanding these drivers helps predict when partnerships between authoritarian powers may hold or unravel.

Summary

Sarah Paine argues the Soviet-Chinese alliance collapsed because shared communist ideology could not override deep-rooted national interests and continental power dynamics. Both Russia and China, as large Eurasian states, prioritized regional dominance and security instincts shaped by historical experience, making their leadership ambitions mutually exclusive. Ideological alignment masked, rather than erased, conflicting strategic aims, territorial impulses, and mutual distrust, which ultimately fractured cooperation.