Economic and Event Calendar in Asia Wednesday, February 11, 2026, China Inflation Data
•February 10, 2026
0
Why It Matters
Inflation outcomes will shape the People’s Bank of China's stimulus outlook and influence global risk sentiment, especially as markets compare China’s data with U.S. releases this week.
Key Takeaways
- •CPI forecast 0.6‑1.2% YoY, driven by seasonal food.
- •PPI expected negative, indicating continued industrial deflation.
- •Surprise CPI rise could ease deflation concerns.
- •Narrowing PPI loss may boost industrial profit sentiment.
- •Weak readings may prompt further policy support from Beijing.
Pulse Analysis
The January CPI and PPI releases are more than routine statistics; they are the first gauge of how China’s economy is faring after the year‑end slowdown and before the Lunar New Year surge. Seasonal factors, particularly pork prices and holiday‑related services, are expected to lift consumer inflation modestly, but the overall rate remains well below historical averages. This suggests that while demand may be picking up, pricing power is still constrained, keeping the economy on the periphery of deflationary risk.
For policymakers, the twin inflation metrics serve as a barometer for monetary easing or tightening. A higher‑than‑expected CPI could signal that consumer demand is rebounding, giving the People’s Bank of China room to consider a gradual withdrawal of ultra‑accommodative measures. Conversely, a persistently negative PPI underscores lingering weakness in the manufacturing sector, where excess capacity and subdued orders continue to suppress factory‑gate prices. Investors will watch for any narrowing of the PPI decline, as it may hint at improving industrial profitability and a potential uptick in credit demand.
Globally, China’s inflation trajectory feeds into broader macro narratives that shape equity, bond, and currency markets. A surprise lift in CPI or a less‑negative PPI could bolster risk appetite, aligning Chinese sentiment with more optimistic U.S. data releases. On the other hand, disappointing numbers would reinforce expectations of continued policy support, prompting a cautious stance among multinational firms and fund managers. Market participants should therefore calibrate exposure to Chinese equities and commodities based on the nuanced signals embedded in these inflation reports.
Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, February 11, 2026, China inflation data
China’s headline inflation readings for January 2026, the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), will be published today by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These monthly indicators will be closely watched for fresh signals on underlying price trends, demand strength ahead of the Lunar New Year and industrial inflation pressures.
Expected CPI performance: Markets currently expect a modest rise in headline consumer inflation relative to the unusually soft readings late last year, with forecasts clustering around ~0.6% – 1.2% year-on-year. Seasonal effects, particularly higher food prices (especially pork) and services ahead of the mid-February Lunar New Year festival, are cited as potential support for a small rebound in CPI compared with late-2025 prints. That said, the overall level will likely remain well below long-term averages, reflecting still-subdued aggregate demand and weak domestic pricing power.
PPI outlook: For the producer price index, forecasts suggest continued deflationary pressure, with PPI expected to remain negative year-on-year. Recent data showed goods prices at the factory gate still under downward pressure amid excess capacity and weak industrial demand, though the rate of decline may narrow slightly as commodity prices and input costs stabilise.
Key themes and market implications:
-
A higher-than-expected CPI could signal early signs of broader demand improvement, potentially easing deflation worries.
-
A narrowing PPI contraction might support sentiment around industrial profitability and credit demand.
-
Overall, if both CPI and PPI undershoot expectations, it could reinforce views of persistent weak pricing power in the Chinese economy, implying continued policy support from Beijing.
-
These inflation readings will also feed into broader global macro sentiment this week, alongside U.S. inflation and employment data
In brief, the key is whether CPI softness is mostly seasonal/base effects (post-New Year discounting, rolling holiday timing) or a sign demand remains too weak to absorb supply. Any surprise lift in CPI and/or less-negative PPI would help “reflation” sentiment at the margin; another downside miss would reinforce the view Beijing may need to keep policy support in play
---
Also, Japanese markets are closed today for the National Foundation Day holiday.
This snapshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar.
-
The times in the left-most column are GMT.
-
The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
0
Comments
Want to join the conversation?
Loading comments...