PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9109 – Reuters Estimate
•February 11, 2026
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Why It Matters
The chosen midpoint reveals the PBOC’s stance on yuan depreciation, shaping FX market dynamics and influencing capital‑flow decisions across the region.
Key Takeaways
- •Fixing set at 6.9109, within 2% band.
- •Midpoint reflects prior close, dollar moves, capital flows.
- •Stronger midpoint signals anti‑depreciation bias.
- •PBOC may intervene if yuan hits band edges.
- •Investors gauge China’s monetary and stability priorities.
Pulse Analysis
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will announce its daily USD/CNY reference rate around 0115 GMT, with Reuters estimating the midpoint at 6.9109. China’s managed‑floating regime anchors the yuan within a ±2 % band around this central rate, allowing limited market flexibility while preserving policy control. The midpoint is derived from the previous day’s close, movements in major currencies—especially the U.S. dollar—plus domestic factors such as capital flows, growth momentum, and financial‑stability goals. This blend of market data and discretionary judgment makes the fixing a unique hybrid of technical and policy instrument.
A stronger‑than‑expected midpoint, like the projected 6.9109, is read as the PBOC’s effort to curb depreciation pressure, signaling confidence in economic fundamentals or a desire to protect import‑cost stability. Conversely, a softer fixing can indicate tolerance for a weaker yuan, often to support export competitiveness or respond to a strengthening dollar. When the onshore rate approaches the upper or lower band limits, the central bank typically steps in—through state‑bank trading, liquidity adjustments, or outright yuan purchases—to smooth volatility and maintain orderly markets.
For investors, the daily fixing offers a real‑time glimpse into Beijing’s currency priorities, influencing hedge strategies, cross‑border capital allocation, and risk‑premia calculations. In periods of heightened global uncertainty—such as shifts in U.S. rate expectations or trade‑policy turbulence—the yuan’s band flexibility becomes a critical buffer against capital flight and exchange‑rate shocks. Monitoring the PBOC’s midpoint trends helps market participants anticipate potential interventions, assess the balance between competitiveness and financial stability, and position portfolios ahead of any abrupt policy shifts.
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9109 – Reuters estimate
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.
China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours.
Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations.
Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks.
As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.
In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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