PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 13 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong

Key Takeaways

• US‑Iran peace talks collapsed, raising risk of Gulf of Hormuz conflict
• Forties Blend crude hit near $147/barrel, highest since 2008
• China’s March PPI rose 0.5% YoY, first increase since 2022
• Taiwan’s March exports surged 61.8% YoY to $80.2 billion, AI boom driver
• South Korea kept policy rate at 2.5% as oil shock looms

Pulse Analysis

The abrupt end to US‑Iran negotiations has sent shockwaves through energy markets, reviving concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could become a flashpoint. Physical crude such as Forties Blend spiked to almost $147 a barrel, eclipsing pre‑2008 highs, while Brent’s modest $95 level masks a widening gap between futures and spot prices. Analysts warn that any sustained disruption to Hormuz traffic would tighten global supply, pressuring inflation and potentially prompting further fiscal or military responses from the United States.

In Asia, China’s producer‑price index finally turned positive, climbing 0.5% year‑on‑year in March – the first rise since 2022. The rebound reflects soaring commodity costs, especially a 15.8% jump in oil‑and‑gas extraction prices, and hints at a nascent inflationary cycle that could complicate the government’s 2% CPI target. Investors are watching whether this momentum will translate into broader consumer‑price gains or remain confined to the supply chain, as the country balances growth ambitions against deflationary legacies.

Taiwan’s export performance underscores the transformative impact of the global AI surge, with March shipments soaring 61.8% to a record $80.2 billion, propelled by a 134.5% jump in ICT products. The island’s trade surplus widened to $21.3 billion, reinforcing its role as a critical node in the tech supply chain. Meanwhile, South Korea’s central bank held rates steady at 2.5%, signaling caution amid oil‑price volatility and regional geopolitical risk. Together, these dynamics illustrate how Middle‑East tensions are reshaping Asian markets, from commodity pricing to high‑tech trade flows, and why policymakers and investors must monitor both geopolitical and macroeconomic signals closely.