Singapore Stocks End Almost Flat Before Chinese New Year; STI Inches up 0.02%

Why It Matters

The modest index rise masks underlying export weakness that could temper Singapore’s growth trajectory, while rising geopolitical and AI‑related risks add uncertainty for investors and policymakers.

Key Takeaways

• STI up 0.02% to 4,938.58 points.
• NODX grew 9.3% YoY, below 12% forecast.
• Jardine Matheson +2.5%; Singtel -1.4%.
• Singapore banks mixed; DBS -0.3%, OCBC flat, UOB -0.2%.
• RHB forecasts 3% NODX growth, warns AI/geopolitical risks.

Pulse Analysis

Singapore’s equity market entered the Chinese New Year holiday with little fanfare, as the benchmark STI barely moved higher. The near‑flat close reflects a cautious investor mood, tempered by recent export figures that showed a 9.3% rise in non‑oil domestic shipments – a solid number but still short of the 12% consensus. The data underscores the importance of the electronics sector, which continues to benefit from artificial‑intelligence demand, yet it also signals that broader trade momentum may be slowing as global supply chains adjust.

Sector performance painted a nuanced picture. Heavyweights such as Jardine Matheson posted a 2.5% gain, buoyed by diversified holdings, while telecom giant Singtel slipped 1.4%, reflecting lingering concerns over regional competition and pricing pressure. The three local banks delivered mixed results: DBS edged down 0.3%, OCBC held steady, and UOB fell 0.2%, indicating that financials remain sensitive to macro‑economic cues despite stable domestic fundamentals. Meanwhile, the iEdge Singapore Next 50 saw China Aviation surge 4.5%, highlighting the continued appetite for aviation recovery, whereas StarHub’s 2.7% decline points to volatility in the communications space.

Looking ahead, RHB Group’s chief economist Barnabas Gan maintains a cautiously optimistic 3% full‑year NODX growth forecast, aligning with official projections. However, he flags two headwinds: escalating geopolitical tensions that could disrupt trade routes, and a potential AI‑driven market correction that may compress valuations across tech‑heavy export categories. Investors should monitor these dynamics closely, as they will shape Singapore’s trade outlook and influence capital allocation decisions throughout 2026.