PETER LEWIS'MONEY TALK - Wednesday 11 February 2026

The episode opened with a rapid market roundup: AI‑driven demand propelled TSMC’s January revenue up 37% to $12.7 billion, underscoring the semiconductor boom. Singapore’s economy grew 5% in 2025, outpacing forecasts, while the U.S. equity market lingered near all‑time highs, the S&P 500 slipping slightly and the Dow breaking the 50,000 barrier. Treasury yields fell to 4.14% after weak retail sales, and currencies shifted—yen strengthened, yuan hit its strongest level since May 2023, and gold slipped modestly. These data points set the stage for deeper geopolitical analysis.

A major focus was Japan’s post‑election landscape. Prime Minister Senai Takechi secured a super‑majority, giving her a rare window to address chronic challenges: an aging population, shrinking labor force, and high public debt. Guests debated whether she will pursue bold fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, or structural reforms such as easing immigration and leveraging automation. The conversation also explored how her stance could reshape Japan‑China dynamics, with China weighing whether to intensify pressure or risk pushing Japan further into a Western alignment that includes the United States and India.

The discussion then pivoted to trade policy. Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S. could achieve 15% growth contrasted sharply with the World Bank’s modest 2.2% forecast, highlighting divergent economic narratives. Panelists examined the Trump administration’s shift toward bilateral agreements, arguing that while this approach simplifies negotiations, it may erode the tariff reductions and multilateral cooperation achieved under WTO frameworks. Coupled with flat U.S. retail sales and rising global tariff averages, the episode warned investors to monitor how these policy currents could affect supply chains, emerging market exposure, and overall market volatility.