Rudi: Where Can You Find Shelter as Winter Arrives for Tech Stocks?

Why It Matters

The sector rotation signals a fundamental shift in capital allocation on the ASX, meaning investors must reassess exposure to growth versus value stocks ahead of a sentiment‑driven earnings season.

Key Takeaways

• ASX earnings forecasts now exceed 10% amid rising commodity prices.
• Resources and banks entering bull market; growth and tech stocks in winter.
• Broker buy ratings surge to two‑thirds, highlighting market polarization.
• Consumer and healthcare sectors face headwinds from higher rates and strong dollar.
• Momentum, not fundamentals, will drive February reporting season performance.

Summary

The video features James Marlay and Rudy Van Djk discussing the ASX landscape as reporting season approaches, focusing on the stark rotation from growth‑tech to resources and banks.

They note Morgan Stanley’s original 8% earnings growth forecast for the ASX‑200 has already been eclipsed by 10‑11% as commodity prices surge. The market is now highly polarized: resource and banking stocks enjoy a bull run, while previously favored growth, AI and quality stocks are in a “winter” phase, pressured by higher bond yields, a stronger Australian dollar and tighter consumer spending.

Rudy cites broker data showing two‑thirds of ratings are now “buy”, underscoring the split. He points to examples such as NLW Holdings gaining contracts, ResMed beating expectations yet seeing its share price fall, and the defensive tilt toward Chemist Warehouse and Sigma Healthcare. He also warns that the influx of capital into small‑cap commodity plays could amplify volatility.

For investors, February’s earnings season will be driven more by sentiment and momentum than by earnings surprises. Strategies that favor value‑oriented resources, banks, and defensive consumer staples are likely to outperform, while tech‑heavy portfolios should brace for continued underperformance unless a macro shift occurs.

Original Description

FNArena’s Rudi Filapek-Vandyck joins James Marlay to discuss the recent sell off in technology related stocks on the ASX and how he is preparing for the upcoming reporting season.

Volatility has featured heavily in the past two reporting seasons and from some of the early results Rudi says this trend is likely to play out again.

This interview was recorded on the 4th of February 2026

Time codes

00:00 - Winter arrives for tech stocks

02:05 - How bull and bear markets now move by sector

05:03 - What broker research is really telling us

08:22 - What’s driving the sell-off in tech and growth stocks

11:28 - Which sectors are being overlooked

18:27 - Stocks Rudi is watching this reporting season

20:08 - Are REA and CAR still buy-on-dips stocks?

21:43 - How much cash Rudi is holding and why

24:05 - Is this a bear market or just a rotation?

Don't have time to watch? You can read a summary here: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/rudi-where-can-you-find-shelter-as-winter-arrives-for-tech-stocks