Tesla’s Unsupervised Robotaxi Count IS Growing

Key Takeaways

• 39 unsupervised Tesla robotaxis operating, 27 in Austin.
• New driverless fleets added in Dallas and Houston this month.
• 30 NHTSA incidents reported, 5 with major injuries.
• Tesla lags Waymo’s 1,300+ driverless taxis, Baidu’s 1,000+.
• Expansion plans target Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, Las Vegas.

Pulse Analysis

Tesla’s latest robotaxi tracker data shows a modest but measurable uptick in driverless operations, now counting 39 unsupervised vehicles across Austin, Dallas and Houston. The bulk of the fleet—27 cars—remains in Austin, where Tesla has expanded from a handful to nearly thirty units in just a month. This incremental growth counters earlier narratives of a stalled rollout, yet the numbers remain small compared with the scale ambitions outlined in Elon Musk’s public statements.

Safety remains the pivotal hurdle. NHTSA records reveal 30 reported incidents over the past year, five of which involved major injuries and a sizable share of property damage. While the incident rate appears high for a fleet of this size, it is difficult to draw statistically robust conclusions without broader exposure. Competitors such as Waymo and Baidu report lower incident frequencies per mile, bolstering their credibility with regulators and city partners. Tesla’s challenge is to demonstrate that its Full Self‑Driving (FSD) software can consistently avoid the “looping” and erratic behavior that has plagued earlier tests.

From an investment perspective, the modest fleet expansion keeps the narrative of a future revenue stream alive, but the gap to rivals is stark. Waymo already fields over 1,300 driverless taxis, and Baidu’s Pony.ai exceeds 1,000 units. Tesla’s next milestone—reaching 1,000 autonomous cars in 2026—will be a decisive test of whether its technology can catch up or remain a speculative promise. Until then, analysts will weigh the incremental progress against the mounting safety data and competitive pressure to gauge the realistic upside for Tesla’s autonomous‑mobility ambitions.