Record Vehicle Exports in 2025, but Component Exports Continue to Decline as EV Sales Grow

Why It Matters

The record vehicle exports boost South Africa’s trade balance and attract foreign investment, but the ongoing decline in component shipments signals a structural shift toward electric mobility that could jeopardize legacy manufacturing jobs. Companies and policymakers must pivot to EV‑related parts to preserve the industry’s long‑term competitiveness.

Key Takeaways

• Vehicle exports hit 414,271 units, a record increase.
• Component exports fell to $3.2 bn, third consecutive decline.
• Catalytic converter exports dropped 54% to $0.84 bn.
• Chinese vehicle imports rose to 23% of South Africa’s market.
• NEV sales grew 7% but fell to 2.8% of total.

Pulse Analysis

South Africa’s automotive sector posted a historic surge in 2025, shipping 414,271 vehicles abroad—a 5.9% rise over 2024—and generating roughly $12.1 bn in export value. Combined vehicle and component shipments reached an estimated $15.3 bn, representing 15.6% of the nation’s total exports and contributing 5.2% to GDP. The strong performance underscores the industry’s resilience amid global supply‑chain disruptions and positions the country as the dominant automotive hub in Africa, accounting for just over half of the continent’s production.

Despite the headline‑grabbing vehicle numbers, component exports slipped for the third straight year, falling to about $3.2 bn. The decline is most pronounced in catalytic converters, which dropped 54% to $0.84 bn as the global shift toward electric vehicles erodes demand for emissions‑control hardware. Engine‑part shipments also stagnated, highlighting a structural transition that could pressure South African manufacturers reliant on legacy parts. Adjusting the supply chain toward battery packs, power‑train modules, and software will be critical to sustain export growth.

The domestic market reflected a parallel transformation, with imported Chinese brands climbing to 23% of new‑vehicle sales, driven by competitive pricing and extensive warranty programs. Indian models remain the largest import source, but the rapid expansion of Chinese offerings signals a new competitive frontier. Meanwhile, new‑energy vehicle sales rose 7% to 16,716 units, yet their share of total sales slipped to 2.8%, indicating that price sensitivity still favors conventional models. Policymakers and investors will need to balance incentives for EV adoption with support for legacy component producers.